US oil output fell 6% in January — EIA

I don’t think this will come as a surprise to the oil market — which is closed today — but the EIA says the US crude production fell to 12.533 mbpd in January, a drop of 6% from December.

A good portion of that was due to cold weather freezeoffs but it also highlights producer discipline. Texas production fell 5% while in North Dakota it fell 13%.

That will likely bounce back in February but there is tentative evidence that the breakneck pace of 2022-23 production growth is done. If so, that should allow OPEC to slowly bring back barrels starting in H2.

Here’s a good chart to illustrate the shale treadmill.