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ICYMI, Morgan Stanley’s Global Strategy Mid-Year Outlook note was published over the weekend.
The change in view from the bank’s chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson has catalysed headlines such as:
- thrown in the towel
- finally capitulated
Wilson’s new forecast is not too far out of line from consensus now. Market Watch earlier collated revised forecasts. The piece is gated but this is a summary:
Wilson cites:
- base case is for earnings growth of 8% in 2024 and 13% in 2025, helped by top-line growth and margin expansion
- by the Q2 2025, the 12-month forward price/earnings multiple for the S&P 500 will be 19 times on aggregate earnings for June 2026 of $283, equating to 5,400
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Making 12-month forecasts is a tough gig.
