NZDUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no
  change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and
  the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the
  unemployment rate lower.
• Fed Chair Powell maintained a neutral stance as he said that it was
  premature to react to the recent inflation data given possible bumps on the way
  to their 2% target.
• The US CPI and the US PPI beat expectations for the second
  consecutive month.
• The US Jobless Claims yesterday missed expectations slightly
  although Continuing Claims improved.
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with
  the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to
  the lowest level in 4 years.
• The US Consumer Confidence missed expectations although the labour
  market details improved.
• The market still expects the first cut in June, but
  the probability stands at just 60%.

NZD

• The RBNZ kept its official cash rate
  unchanged dropping
  the tightening bias and stating that the OCR will need to remain at restrictive
  level for a sustained period.
• The latest New Zealand inflation data printed in line with expectations
  supporting the RBNZ’s patient stance.
• The labour market report beat expectations across the
  board with lower than expected unemployment rate and higher wage growth.
• The Manufacturing PMI improved in February remaining in
  contraction while the Services PMI increased further holding on in
  expansion.
• The market expects the first cut in
  August.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD rallied
all the way back to retest the broken support zone now turned
resistance where we had also the confluence of the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average. This is
where the sellers stepped in with a defined risk above the Fibonacci level to
position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking higher to start targeting the 0.6218 resistance.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price was diverging with the
MACD falling
into new lows, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed
by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, we got the break above the trendline and the
reversal into the resistance following the US ISM Services PMI. The price has
now pulled back into 0.60 handle where we can find the confluence of the 38.2%
Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. This is where we can
expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the zone to position for
a rally into the resistance targeting a breakout. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets
into new lows.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action with the pair now trading at the support zone.
If the price were to break above the black counter-trendline, we can expect the
buyers to gain even more conviction and increase the bullish momentum, although
a lot will depend on the US NFP report today as strong figures across the board
will likely trigger a selloff in the pair.

Upcoming Events

Today we conclude the week with the US NFP report.