Weekly Market Outlook (15-19 April)

UPCOMING EVENTS:

• Monday: New
  Zealand Services PMI, Eurozone Industrial Production, US Retail Sales, US
  NAHB Housing Market Index, PBoC MLF.
• Tuesday: China
  Industrial Production and Retail Sales, UK Labour Market report, Eurozone
  ZEW, Canada CPI, US Housing Starts and Building Permits, US Industrial
  Production.
• Wednesday: New
  Zealand CPI, UK CPI.
• Thursday:
  Australia Labour Market report, US Jobless Claims.
• Friday: Japan
  CPI, UK Retail Sales.

Monday

The PBoC is expected to keep the MLF rate
unchanged at 2.50%. The recent “activity” data has been pretty good with the
latest PMIs
coming in strong. The CPI
figures though missed expectations by a big margin as the deflationary threat
remains present. The PBoC Governor Pan stated that they still have
sufficient room for monetary policy, so adjustments to the policy rates
cannot be ruled out.

The US Retail Sales M/M is expected at
0.3% vs. 0.6% prior, while the Retail Sales ex-Autos M/M figure is seen at 0.4%
vs. 0.3% prior. Retail Sales are notoriously volatile, but the underlying
trend shows stable spending and given the resilience in the labour market
and the recent pickup in economic activity we can expect it to continue. If we
get a miss, the market should fade the reaction as the trend set by the third
consecutive hot US CPI is unlikely to change by the Retail Sales data.

Tuesday

The UK Unemployment Rate is expected to
remain unchanged at 3.9% and there is no consensus at the time of writing for
the other figures. The focus will be mainly on wage growth metrics but
unless we get some big surprises, the market’s pricing is unlikely to change
much as market participants will be looking for the UK CPI report the next
day.

There is no consensus for the Canadian CPI
readings at the time of writing but as always, the attention will be on the
underlying inflation measures as that’s what the BoC is most concerned about.
The central bank at its latest
monetary policy meeting removed a line in
the statement where it previously noted its concern about the inflation
outlook. This was interpreted as a dovish move as it followed weak labour
market and inflation
reports. The market sees the BoC cutting rates in June, but the central bank
will need the disinflationary trend to continue to deliver on expectations.

Wednesday

The New Zealand CPI Y/Y is expected at
4.1% vs. 4.7%, while the Q/Q measure is seen at 0.7% vs. 0.5% prior. The RBNZ
at its latest
monetary policy meeting dropped the
tightening bias and stated that the OCR will need to remain at a restrictive
level for a sustained period of time. The
central bank expects to normalise policy only in 2025 while the market sees the
first rate cut in August. Unless we get big surprises, the data is unlikely
to change the market’s pricing much.

The UK CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.1% vs.
3.4% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.0.4% vs. 0.6% prior. The Core
CPI Y/Y is expected at 4.3% vs. 4.5% prior. The BoE is very concerned
about the Services Inflation rate which stands at an uncomfortable 6.1% level,
so that will be the most important data point. There’s basically a 50/50
chance for a rate cut in June and it’s unlikely that the BoE will deliver on
expectations unless we get some notable easing in the inflation rates
(especially services inflation) in the next couple of months or the labour
market cracks in the meantime.

Thursday

The Australian Labour Market report is
expected to show 15.5K jobs added in March vs. 116.5K in
February and the Unemployment Rate to tick
higher to 3.9% vs. 3.7% prior. Unless there are big surprises, the data is
unlikely to change much for the market with the first rate cut expected in
November.

The US Jobless Claims continue to be one
of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier
indicator on the state of the labour market. This is because disinflation to
the Fed’s target is more likely with a weakening labour market. A resilient
labour market though could make the achievement of the target more difficult.
Initial Claims keep on hovering around cycle lows, while Continuing Claims
remain firm around the 1800K level. There is no consensus at the time of
writing although the prior
week saw Initial Claims at 211K vs. 215K
expected and Continuing Claims at 1817K vs. 1800 expected.

Friday

The Japanese Core CPI Y/Y is expected at
2.6% vs. 2.8% prior with no consensus of the other measures. The BoJ continues
to support the status quo while mentioning that another rate hike will depend
on the data. The timing for such a move remains uncertain though with July
and October being on the table, although the latter is the most probable one.
Nevertheless, if we start to see inflation trending upwards, the BoJ will
likely move already in July.