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- Trump exempt Mexico and Canada from collecting the new customs tariff; China, the European Union and others have reached duties of up to 46 %.
- Sheinbaum avoids revenge measures, while the eyes of the Mexican Financial Plan are narrower deficit and optimistic growth goals.
- American powerful work data supports US dollar, but the focus turns into ISM Services PMI, NFP and Powell’s Conssars later this week.
The Mexican Bezo (MXN) organized a return on Wednesday, as it ended the session on a strong note with 0.86 % gains, as Mexico and Canada were exempt from the mutual tariff for President Trump. With the start of the Asian session on Thursday, USD/MXN exchanges 20.24 hands by about 0.33 %.
Recently, US President Donald Trump announced that the United States will impose a 10 % tariff on all imports and 25 % duties on cars. These duties become effective on April 3.
The mutual definitions are applied to some countries. China reaches 34 % duties, the European Union is 20 %, 46 % to Vietnam, 24 % to Japan, and 10 % to the United Kingdom,
Meanwhile, Mexico President Claudia Xinbum said that she would not impose definitions on the monopoly, which raised a decline in the US dollar’s pair/MXN, who bought buyers, while maintaining the strange husband within familiar levels.
The Mexican Ministry of Finance announced that it would narrow the financial deficit in 2026. According to Bloomberg, the Shinbum Administration said it will target a budget gap from 3.2 % to 3.5 %. gross domestic product Next year, the ambitious appreciation of this year from 3.9 % to 4 %. “
The Ministry reviewed its growth forecast for 2025 to about 1.5 % -2.3 %, a very optimistic scenario compared to the Panco de Mexico estimate (Pancico) by 0.6 %. The OECD Organization (OECD) predicts that the GDP of Mexico will contract 1.3 %.
Data in the United States revealed a strong labor market, as companies are employing more people who are expected by economists, bypassing February reading. At the same time, the factory orders expanded above expectations, but they were flooded compared to the January numbers.
Before this week, the economic agenda in Mexico will include the total fixed investment numbers and consumer confidence data. In the United States, merchants focus on PMI Services Services in March, Non -agricultural salary statements The numbers, and feeding President Jerome Powell’s speech.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Peso Mexican is uncertain on customs tariffs
- Mexican business confidence has deteriorated sharply in February, according to Inegi. Meanwhile, S& P Global stated that manufacturing activity was contracted for the fifth consecutive month.
- The Governor of Pancico, Victoria Rodriguez Sega, stated that the central bank will remain a pace of American commercial policies and its impact on the country, with the primary focus on inflation, as I noticed in an interview with EL Fanciero.
- In March, the ADP National Employment Report revealed that companies added 155,000 people to the workforce, exceeding 105,000 jobs and above 84,000 jobs created in February.
- Other data showed that the factory orders in February exceeded 0.5 % estimates and expanded 0.6 % of my mother, a decrease from 1.8 % in January.
- At 20:00 GMT, Donald Trump is expected to announce the imposition of mutual definitions on commercial partners in the White House park.
- JP Morgan supports 50 points per second in Mexico due to the risk of imminent recession, according to Stephen Palacio. Palacio added that Mexico will be used in a stagnation spread with definitions and “uncertainty surrounding them.”
Technical expectations USD/MXN: Mexican Peso puts water where USD/MXN climbs above 20.40
USD/MXN remains biased up, as it is traded near the highest weekly level of 20.54, however it is contained due to uncertainty about the results of the tariff. If the duties are applied without exemptions, the peaso can decrease sharply. In this result, the husband can challenge the highest level on March 4 at 20.99, followed by the peak of February 3, 21.28.
On the other hand, if Mexico is exempt from customs tariffs due to the commitment of the United States to the USMCA free trade rules, then the USD/MXN can review the first support level, which is seen at the meeting of simple moving averages 50 and 100 days (SMAS) around 20.35/36, followed by a 20.00 mark. The latter will penetrate SMA for 200 days in 19.76.
Common brown questions
Mexico Bank, also known as Pancico, is the central bank in the country. Its mission is to maintain the value of Mexico, Mexican Peso (MXN), and control of monetary policy. To this end, its main goal is to maintain low and stable inflation within the target levels – at or close to its 3 % goal, the center point in the tolerance range ranges between 2 % and 4 %.
The main tool for banknotes for monetary policy guidance is to determine interest rates. When inflation is higher than the target, the bank will try to tame it by raising prices, which makes it more expensive for families and companies to borrow money and thus cool the economy. The highest interest rates are generally positive for Mexican Peso (MXN) because it leads to higher returns, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, low interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The difference in the average with the US dollar, or how Banxico is expected to determine interest rates compared to the Federal Federal Reserve (Fed), which is a major factor.
Pancico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly affected by the US Federal Reserve decisions (Fed). Therefore, the Central Bank Resolution Committee usually gathered a week after the Federal Reserve. When doing this, Pancico interacts and sometimes expects monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before raising the federal reserve rate, Pancico was first trying to reduce the chances of a significant decrease in the Mexican Bzo (MXN) and to prevent capital flows that could shake the country.
