Is S& P500 in the bear market?

Yesterday’s “Tahrir Day” took the market as a hostage today, as the Trump administration presented the anti -anti -outskirts than expected. People “terrified”- intended pun. However, although one should never surrender to the prevailing feelings on this day, many of them are truly wondering whether the new bear market has started. Here, we offer one indicator that can help answer this question: the new Nileo for 52 weeks (NYLOW). See Figure 1 below.

Figure 1

Since 1965, when NYLOW data has become available, we have set the ten s & p We included three decreases by approximately 20 % in this analysis, but we excluded one decrease by 14.3 %. Although it lasted for nearly eight months and witnessed the Nilo mutations above 1000, it did not meet the percentage of the percentage. The current decrease is about 11 %, on the basis of conclusion, and has lasted for seven weeks so far. This is what we found:

• In all 13 cases, the nylu rose above 500.
• In 11 cases, the nylu rose above 750.
• In 7 bear markets, the nylu rose above 1000.

Red and orange boxes highlight these occasions. So, what does this mean for the current market? You need to look closely to discover the small black box in the lower right corner table. This year, NYLOW has increased so far to 289 and 276 and is currently 411 today. The latter is closer to the correction of 10.5 % from August to October in 2023.

Therefore, the available data indicates that there is no new bear market.

Where do we leave that? In our previous update, we have shown through Elliot wave The S&P 500 is likely to be in a long fourth wave based on the standard Fibonacci motivation pattern. this analysis It is assumed that the assembly of Low Covid-19 in March 2020 to the elevated in 2021 constitutes the wave 1, while the 2022 bear market represents the wave 2. The indicator must now be in W-3. See Figure 2 below.

Figure 2

The next day of the index introduction, we found,

“If the index stops at about 5,900 ± 100 dollars, then it decreases to the lowest level for this week, [$ 5,504]…, we expect SPX to target 61.8 % at $ 5,116 before the Red WV launch to 7122-7746 dollars.“

SPX reached $ 5,784 last week, leaving us only 0.3 %. Less than $ 5.504 decreased on Monday, only to close the top and the reversal to the peak yesterday. However, the response to “Liberation Day” indicates that the green WC RED WC RED, perfectly at 5,140 ± 20 dollars when assuming a FIB standard, must be currently being running now. This target area is close to the ideal level of $ 5,116. See Figure 3 below.

Figure 3

It is necessary to have a decisive break less than $ 5,398 to confirm this path. It is, if this level continues and we see a great reflection, the index can still try to re -enter the $ 5900 range to $ 6000. This is our alternative view.

Currently, take a deep breath, reduce, remember that cold heads prevail.

1. There are no signs of the bear market.
2. Even if there is one, the date shows us (see Figure 1) that every Bir market is a major bi -purchase opportunity for those who have a time horizon longer than a few days to weeks.
3. SPX continues to follow a standard motivation pattern based in Fibonacci, which started in March 2020, which he set several weeks ago.