.jpg)
- The US dollar index slip less than 100.40 after rejection near its highest level for one month.
- The United States speaks between China in Switzerland, waving on the horizon during the weekend addresses.
- Federal reserve officials confirm the stable inflation expectations amid economic uncertainty.
The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar against the currency basket, reflects sharply on Friday after it reached the highest level in one month of 100.86 earlier in the day. The disappointment surrounding the so -called commercial deal in the United States of America weighs greatly on Greenback, where investors focus on critical trade negotiations this week between this week US And China in Switzerland.
Daily Digest Market Movers: US dollar reduces the main conversations
- Commercial markets are crossed out by the markets as ungrateful, with the customs tariffs remaining on British goods by 10 %.
- The market concentration is transmitted to commercial talks between the United States and China this weekend, where the discussions are expected to be tense and decisive.
- President Trump hinted that the customs tariff for Chinese goods may decrease to 50 % if cooperation improves, although doubts are prevalent.
- Chinese refineries imported 11.7 million barrels per day in April, as crude oil prices dropped.
- The United States sets Chinese independent refineries in the sanctions list to buy Iranian oil, adding pressure before commercial talks.
- The head of the New York Reserve Bank, John Williams, stressed the importance of maintaining long -term inflation.
- The Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kogler highlighted the current policy rate as a moderate restricted, indicating that he will remain unchanged.
- Commerzbank analyzes warn that high Chinese raw imports are unlikely to maintain them while tightening US sanctions.
- Federal policy makers have emphasized that the economy is still healthy, but warned of possible negative risks of high definitions.
- Despite the short -term rise, the US dollar index faces the sale of pressure with the emergence of stagnation risk of constant definitions.
- The market is now awaiting concrete results from the following policy movements at the Federal Reserve Bank and potential inflation developments.
- US sanctions against Chinese refineries are expected to affect the energy sector in China, which may affect commercial talks.
- Iranian oil imports from China are still high at 1.5 million barrels per day, but may decrease after US sanctions.
- Investors remain cautious, taking into account the main risks and developments at the weekend of China and the United States.
Technical analysis of the US dollar index: Support DXY tests
the US dollar The index (DXY) is trading around the level of 100.00, a decrease of more than 0.30 % a day, after a test increased earlier near 100.86. Both the RSI appear in 46 and the final oscillator in 59 neutral momentum, while the average divergence of the moving medium rapprochement (MACD) pulled a purchase signal. The average trend index is still in 44 neutral, indicating that there is no strong bias for the direction.
Buyers are supported in the short term through the simple moving average for 20 days (SMA) at 99.64, but the long -term resistance remains firm with SMA for 100 days at 105.11 and SMA for 200 days at 104.31 indicating the pressure pressure. Immediate support is located in 100.28, 100.24 and 99.97, while resistance appears in 100.73, 100.80 and 100.86.
Questions and answers in US dollars
The USD (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and a “reality” currency for a large number of other countries where there is a circulating alongside local notes. It is the most trading currency in the world, as it represents more than 88 % of the rotation of global foreign currencies, or on average $ 6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. In the aftermath of World War II, the United States took over the British pound the world reserves. For most of its history, the US dollar was backed by gold, even the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971 when the golden standard went.
The most important individual factor that affects the value of the US dollar is the monetary policy, which is formed by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Federal Reserve has two states: to achieve price stability (control of control) and enhance full employment. Its primary performance to achieve these two goals is to adjust interest rates. When prices rise very quickly and inflation is 2 % higher than the Federal Reserve goal, the Federal Reserve will raise rates, which helps the value of the dollar. When inflation decreases to less than 2 % or the unemployment rate is very high, the Federal Reserve may reduce interest rates, which weighs to green.
In maximum situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more dollars and quantitative mitigation (QE). QE is the process that the Federal Reserve increases significantly from the flow of credit in a suspended financial system. It is a measure of the non -standard policy used when the credit is dry because banks will not lend to each other (for fear of failing to pay the opposite end). It is the last resort when it is unlikely to achieve interest rates simply the necessary result. The Federal Reserve is the preferred to combat the credit crisis that occurred during the great financial crisis in 2008. It includes the printing of the Federal Reserve more dollars and their use to buy US government bonds mostly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to the weakest US dollar.
The quantitative tightening (QT) is the opposite process in which the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not invest the manager from the bonds he holds in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US dollar.
