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A pseudonym between Americans about definitions.
Those who oppose them argue that customs tariffs are errors that can lead to a breakdown in consumer spending, which leads to recession. Others see the definitions as an ideal tool to restore American manufacturing dominance.
In the end, whether the definitions are good or bad, they may vary greatly depending on the industry. For example, it may be easier for technology companies, such as semiconductor makers, to prominent American production from paper and clothing manufacturers, given that many previous infrastructure in the end have been closed long ago.
Regardless, most of the tariffs that agree are inflated and are likely to curl the profits of companies, making it a possible threat to our already tense economy.
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The risks that might pressure corporate profits caused a decrease of S&P 500 by 4.6 % in the first quarter, the worst appearing since a decrease of 4.9 % in 2022, which preceded the evil bear market.
The sales that depend on customs tariffs can reach its head soon. President Trump will announce a large -scale tariff on April 2, an event referring to the name “Liberation Day”.
Related: Jim Kramer provides one luxurious reaction to a 20 % tariff
The fact that the liberation day may determine what is happening to the following stocks caught the attention of veteran analyst Tom Lee from Fundstrat. Lee has moved to the markets since the 1990s, and properly expected the bottom of the bear market in 2023 and the gathering in 2024.
Looking at the previous LEE predictions, investors may want to pay attention to their predictions of the performance of stocks after the definitions.
The American economy is at a risk -fraught point
It can be said that the expected monetary policy of the Federal Reserve in 2022 decreased, given the low inflation to less than 3 % of more than 8 % over the course of almost three years.
Nevertheless, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volker has dealt with inflation in the eighties of the last century.
A decline in economic activity contributed to the demobilization of workers, raising the unemployment rate to 4.1 % from 3.5 % in 2023.
Related: Jimmy Damon sends Curt 6 response to the tariff war
In February, 172,000 Americans lost their job, according to Challenger, Gray, Warsasas, more than February since we drowned in the great recession in 2009.
Increased unemployment has reduced the Federal Reserve of Interest rates last September, November and December increased GDP growth. However, these federal backup discounts have put in a difficult place because inflation started heading up again. In February, the consumer price index showed 2.8 % inflation, up from 2.4 % last September.
Meanwhile, jobs have not yet been stabilized given the weekly fair claims with the past fall and economic activity as measured by GDP, or GDP, dwindling.
To date, economic data in the first quarter contains the GDP GDP of ATLANTA FED for ATLANTA FED by 3.7 % negative. This is certainly that it will change with the appearance of more data, but it is possible that the Q1 GDP is probably ashamed in a significant way from the 3.1 % pace registered in the second and third quarter last year.
Tom Lee makes a bold prediction about what is happening to the following stocks
Lee has been tracing the markets professionally for a long time enough to try the internet boom, statue, the great financial crisis, and Covid-Drop.
His careful experience helped him to predict that the bear market ended in 2022, which increases the assembly in 2023. While many expected the S&P 500 to decrease in 2024, holding his upscale expectations, and properly expected another strong year of gains.
Despite the risk of definitions, it is believed that the market can gather after “liberation day”.
More experts:
- The Treasury Secretary has a sharp response 3 word to the decrease in the stock market
- The President of the Federal Reserve has a sharp response 9 words to the recession hadith
- Billionaire Ray Dalio’s scandalous message about economics
“How does President Trump want to interact the securities market with the day of tariff?” He asked me in a video clip of the enjoyment. “There are six reasons why President Trump wants to gather the stock market after announcing the tariff deals.”
These include the six reasons:
- General verification of his definition negotiation
- General support is already declining as shown in the approval of the voters, ISM scanning, consumer polls
- The “collapse” stock market will lead to recession. Average financial stimulation = 2.2 % or 700 billion dollars.
- The tariff is likely to turn into the range: $ 6 trillion in Capex in the future.
- American companies need
- Will it be pushed to upgrade US debt assessments to AAA?
It correctly indicates that the confidence of the consumer, which is a harbinger of the previous recession, has fallen.
The consumer expectation index in the conference council is 65, and it is much lower than 80, which indicated the risk of stagnation in the past. If the recession is achieved, it is believed that it will require approximately $ 700 billion in motivation to make the economy continue again, a huge personality that can eliminate the benefits of definitions.
“The United States government will have to spend $ 660 billion to get out of the recession, and it is in fact the revenues of the actual expected annual tariffs,” he told me. “It will be somewhat displacement.”
It is also believed to me that in order to re -work due to the customs tariff, companies will need a stock market and bonds ready to finance them. This is unlikely to stagnate.
As a result, he is saved frankly, “The stocks must gather tomorrow after the closure,” he said to me. “This is what President Trump wants.”
Related: The Veteran Fund Director reveals the prediction of the S&P 500
