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AUD/USD has traded in the 0.6500 range through March – with a short rise above 0.6600. Economists at the National Australia Bank analyze the pair’s outlook.
Aussie still expected to appreciate
Our expectation for an appreciation above 0.7000 in H2 2024 is contingent on the reversal of the broad strength shown by the USD over the past year or so. In part, this will be reflected by the Fed beginning to ease rates in June – well ahead of an easing by the RBA and a gradual pickup in global growth in 2025.
We see the Aussie ending the year around 0.7200 before driving higher over 2025 – reaching 0.7800 by Q4.
