AUDUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting and dropped the tightening bias in the statement.
• The US CPI and
  the US PPI beat
  expectations for the second consecutive month.
• The NFP report beat
  expectations on the headline number, but the unemployment rate and the average
  hourly earnings missed notably. Moreover, the US Jobless Claims
  yesterday beat expectations across the board with a big positive revision to
  Continuing Claims.
• The latest US ISM
  Manufacturing PMI missed expectations by a big margin
  remaining in contraction with the US ISM Services
  PMI
  following suit but holding on in expansion.
• The US Retail Sales missed
  expectations across the board although the data improved from the prior month.
• The market expects the first rate cut in June.

AUD

• The
  RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected with the central bank maintaining
  the usual tightening bias and data dependent language.
• The
  last Monthly CPI report missed expectations across
  the board which was a welcome development for the RBA.
• The
  latest labour market report missed expectations by a big
  margin.
• The
  wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
  growth in Australia remains strong.
• The
  latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI falling
  back into contraction while the Services PMI jumped back into expansion.
• The
  market expects the first rate cut in August.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD recently
probed above the key resistance level at
0.6623 but got smacked back down following strong US data releases. The price
is now testing the red 21 moving average where we
can expect the buyers to step in to position for a rally back into the highs.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
increase the bearish bets into the key support zone targeting a break below it.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4
hour chart, we can see that the price broke through the support zone around the
0.6590 level where we had the confluence of the
previous swing high level, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
and the daily 8 moving average. The sellers piled in aggressively on a break
below the support zone to target the 0.65 handle. The price is now a bit
overstretched as depicted from the blue 8 moving average. In such instances, we
can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some consolidation
before the next move. In this case, it might end up being a break and retest
pattern with the sellers increasing the bearish bets at the support turned resistance.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
now have a strong resistance around the 0.6585 level where we can also find the
confluence with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving
average. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk
above the resistance to position for a drop into the 0.65 handle. The buyers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in and
position for a rally into the highs.

Upcoming Events

Today we conclude the week with the US Industrial
Production data and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.