AUDUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed
  three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth
  and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.
• Fed Chair Powell
  maintained a neutral stance as he said that it was premature to react to the
  recent inflation data given possible bumps on the way to their 2% target.
• The US CPI and
  the US PPI beat
  expectations for the second consecutive month.
• The US Jobless Claims beat
  expectations across the board.
• The latest US Manufacturing
  PMI
  beat expectations while the Services PMI missed slightly. Both the measures
  remain in expansion though.
• The market expects the first rate cut in June.

AUD

• The
  RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected and finally dropped the
  tightening bias.
• The
  last Monthly CPI report missed expectations across
  the board which was a welcome development for the RBA.
• The
  latest labour market report missed expectations by a big
  margin.
• The
  wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
  growth in Australia remains strong.
• The
  latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI falling
  further into contraction while the Services PMI continue to increase and remain
  in expansion.
• The
  market expects the first rate cut in August.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD bounced
on the key support zone
around the 0.65 handle and rallied strongly into the 0.6623 resistance
following the Fed decision before giving it all back the next day. The price is
now back at the key support, so we can expect once again the buyers to step in
with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into the resistance
targeting a breakout. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and increase the bearish
bets into the 0.63 handle.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more closely the
recent price action with the pair ranging between the 0.65 support and the
0.6623 resistance. There’s not much else to glean from this timeframe, so we
need to zoom in to see some more details.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
sellers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline where
they will also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. The
buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above the
trendline to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into
the resistance.