AUDUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed
  three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth
  and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.
• Fed Chair Powell
  maintained a neutral stance as he said that it was premature to react to the
  recent inflation data given possible bumps on the way to their 2% target.
• The US CPI and
  the US PPI beat
  expectations for the second consecutive month.
• The US Jobless Claims beat
  expectations across the board.
• The latest US Manufacturing
  PMI
  beat expectations while the Services PMI missed slightly. Both the measures
  remain in expansion though.
• The market expects the first rate cut in June.

AUD

• The
  RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected and finally dropped the
  tightening bias.
• The
  last Monthly CPI report missed expectations across
  the board which was a welcome development for the RBA.
• The
  latest labour market report missed expectations by a big
  margin.
• The
  wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
  growth in Australia remains strong.
• The
  latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI falling
  further into contraction while the Services PMI continue to increase and remain
  in expansion.
• The
  market expects the first rate cut in August.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD bounced
on the key support zone
around the 0.65 handle and pulled back into the moving averages. This is
where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the moving
averages to position for a break below the key support zone and target the
0.6443 low. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
higher to increase the bullish bets into the 0.6623 resistance.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price got
rejected recently from the red 21 moving average where we had also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. This is
where the sellers are stepping in to position for a drop into new lows. The
buyers, on the other hand, will need the price to break above the Fibonacci
level to start targeting new highs.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a counter-trendline
defining the current short-term uptrend. This is where the buyers keep leaning
onto to position for new highs with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers
will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to invalidate the
bullish setup and increase the bearish bets into new lows.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the US Consumer Confidence report.
Tomorrow, we have the Australian Monthly CPI data and later in the day Fed’s
Waller speaking. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures,
while on Friday we conclude with the US PCE and Fed Chair Powell.