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- Australian Dollar recovers intraday losses despite lower ASX 200 Index on Wednesday.
- Australian GDP (QoQ) grew by 0.2%, slightly below the expected 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
- US ISM Services PMI declined to 52.6 against the forecasted 53.0 for February.
- US Dollar gains ground on higher US Treasury yields.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovers intraday losses despite a softer GDP on Wednesday. However, the AUD faced downward pressure during early Asian hours amid a weaker equity market. The S&P/ASX 200 Index has declined for three consecutive sessions, mirroring the sell-off in technology stocks on Wall Street and lower mining stocks.
Australian Dollar remained largely unaffected by the softer-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. The GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2023, slightly below market expectations of no change at 0.3%. However, on a year-on-year basis, GDP expanded by 1.5%, surpassing the expected 1.4%, but falling short of the previous growth of 2.1%.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to monitor the economy for signs of a slowdown, aiming to bring inflation back to target. It anticipates a further moderation in economic growth to 1.3% by June 2024.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) attempts to halt its three-day losing streak, buoyed by the recovery in US Treasury yields ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before the US Congress’ House Financial Services Committee scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday. However, the US Dollar (USD) faces downward pressure following softer-than-expected data from the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). ADP Employment Change for February will be eyed on Wednesday.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar improves on risk-on sentiment
- AiG Industry Index reported a print of -14.9 for January, compared to the -27.3 prior.
- AiG Construction PMI extended its contraction, declining to -18.4 from the previous reading of -11.5.
- AiG Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of -12.6 against the previous contraction of -23.8.
- Judo Bank Services PMI surged to a ten-month high of 53.1 in February. This increase pushed the index above the 50.0 threshold, indicating expansion, and surpassed the previous reading of 49.1.
- Judo Bank Composite PMI rose to 52.1 compared to the previous 49.0, marking a nine-month high.
- Australian Current Account Balance rose to 11.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023, against the expected 5.6 billion and 1.3 billion prior.
- ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index declined to 81.0, from the previous reading of 83.2. This latest figure represents the lowest level recorded thus far in 2024.
- Australia Melbourne Institute Inflation for February showed a year-over-year rise of 4.0%, lower than the previous rise of 4.6%.
- Commerzbank economists anticipate that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will delay rate cuts, providing support for the Australian Dollar (AUD) in the interim. They do not foresee an imminent slowdown in the Australian economy. However, if clear indications of a slowdown emerge, possibly signaling a recession, the RBA may adjust its monetary policy stance sooner.
- According to Matthew De Pasquale, an Economist at Judo Bank, the February Services PMI suggests that the sector has achieved a soft landing in 2023 and is now witnessing a resurgence in activity in early 2024. While the resilience in business activity bodes well for economic growth and employment, it casts doubt on the likelihood of inflation returning to target within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s forecast timeline.
- Former New York Fed economist Steven Friedman noted that Federal Reserve policymakers are likely to remain cautious about cutting interest rates this year due to strong growth and volatile inflation. He expected the possibility of fewer than the three cuts anticipated for 2024.
- Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) President Raphael Bostic made headlines on Monday, expressing uncertainty about achieving a soft landing. He does not foresee consecutive rate cuts when they commence but expects two 25-basis point rate cuts in 2024. While inflation is expected to return to the 2% target, Bostic believes it is premature to declare victory.
- According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 4.0% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut in March, while the likelihood of cuts in May and June stands at 23.9% and 53.3%, respectively.
- ISM Services PMI declined to 52.6 in February, against the forecasted downtick to 53.0 from 53.4.
- Factory Orders (MoM) decreased by 3.6% in January, exceeding the expected fall of 2.9%.
- S&P Global Composite PMI (Feb) increased to 52.5 from the previous reading of 51.4.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) dropped to 47.8 from 49.1, surprisingly missing the market expectation 49.5.
- The US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 76.9 in February, falling below the market expectation of remaining unchanged at 79.6.
- US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index grew by 2.4% YoY in January, against the 2.6% prior, in line with the market expectation. The index increased by 0.3% month-over-month, against 0.1% prior.
Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar moves above the psychological level of 0.6500
The Australian Dollar traded around 0.6490 on Wednesday. Immediate resistance is noted near the psychological level of 0.6500. A break above this level could support the AUD/USD pair to reach the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6529, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6543 and the major level of 0.6550. On the downside, key support is seen at the previous week’s low at 0.6486. If breached, the pair may target the area around the major support level of 0.6450 and February’s low at 0.6442.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | 0.03% | 0.04% | -0.06% | -0.15% | -0.04% | -0.04% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | -0.03% | -0.01% | -0.08% | -0.17% | -0.07% | -0.05% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.03% | 0.01% | -0.08% | -0.16% | -0.06% | -0.05% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | 0.10% | 0.07% | -0.09% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.15% | |
| AUD | 0.15% | 0.19% | 0.17% | 0.08% | 0.10% | 0.11% | 0.23% | |
| JPY | 0.04% | 0.07% | 0.06% | -0.02% | -0.09% | 0.01% | 0.10% | |
| NZD | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.04% | -0.03% | -0.12% | -0.01% | 0.13% | |
| CHF | -0.09% | -0.06% | -0.07% | -0.15% | -0.23% | -0.13% | -0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
