Bigger risk to policy is reducing rate too early

“Moving rates down too soon or too quickly without sufficient evidence to give us confidence that inflation is on a sustainable and timely path back to 2% would risk undoing the progress we have made on inflation,” Cleveland Federal President Loretta Mester said on Tuesday, as reported by Reuters. “At this point, I think the bigger risk would be to begin reducing the funds rate too early,” she added.

Key quotes

“Still expecting Fed can cut rates later this year.”

“Fed policy is in good place to navigate risks to economy.”

“Fed can cut rates gradually if economy meets expectations.”

“Strong economy gives Fed space to take stock before cutting rates.”

“Expecting more inflation moderation at slower pace.”

“Not expecting smooth path back to 2%.”

“Risks to economic outlook have become more balanced.”

“Seeing longer run funds rate at 3% versus prior 2.5%.”

“Revised up growth view, activity now seen just above 2% this year.”

“Labor market in better balance, expecting higher unemployment rate.”

Market reaction

These comments failed to trigger a noticeable reaction in the US Dollar. As of writing, the US Dollar Index was down 0.18% on the day at 108.77.