Broad Daily Market Summary – June 17, 2024

The lack of new catalysts sent major financial assets all over the charts today.

What headlines impacted closely watched assets yesterday?

Here are the main topics you should know!

Titles:

• BusinessNZ Service Performance Index It fell 3.6 points to 43.0 in May. It arrived “Levels of deflation are greater than during the 2008/2009 global financial crisis“
• Correct movement: House prices in the United Kingdom Recession (0.0%) in June after reaching record levels in May
• Basic machinery orders in Japan For April: -2.9% m/m as expected after a 2.9% rise in March
• ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads It fell by 2.1% month-on-month in May after a 2.3% decline in April. “The labor market is slowing, but only gradually.“
• the The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) maintained the rate of its medium-term lending facilities by 2.5% as expected and a net withdrawal of 55 billion yen from the banking system
• Retail sales in China For May: 3.7% y/y (2.6% y/y expected; 2.3% y/y ex); the Unemployment rate For May 2024 it settled at 5.0% as expected
• China industrial production May: 5.6% y/y (6.3% y/y, 6.7% y/y, previous forecast)
• The Swiss government lowered its forecasts for Inflation 2024 From 1.5% to 1.4% according to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO)
• Housing Canada begins May: 264.5K (expect 239.0K; previous 241.1K) – CMHC
• International flow of Canadian securities April: C$41.16 billion (expect C$10.0 billion; previously C$14.38 billion)
• New York Fed Manufacturing Index Improved to -6 in June (10.0 forecast; -15.6 previous)

Broad market price movement:

With few new market drivers, major assets have mostly taken cues from their individual catalysts.

Crude oil prices rose to the $80.00 level despite mixed economic data coming out of China. The rise may be driven by a recent surge in optimism about the upcoming summer driving season and speculation that OPEC+ may scale back its plans to increase supply later this year.

Global stocks also traded higher as political tensions in Europe subsided and the US technology sector strengthened, which led to the Standard & Poor’s 500 and Nasdaq indices rising to new record levels.

Meanwhile, US 10-year bond yields also rose to just under 4.30%, while both spot gold and the US dollar saw limited demand amid a risk-friendly trading environment.

Forex market behavior: US dollar against major currencies

Overlay of the US dollar against major currencies Chart by TradingView

The US dollar witnessed mixed trading as markets anticipated the release of key economic data this week and speeches from Federal Reserve officials.

The dollar fluctuated widely early and rose slightly before the start of the US trading session. Later, New York’s manufacturing PMI indicated a slower-than-expected contraction in June, which likely spurred some risk-on.

Despite the overall risk-filled trading environment, the dollar did not perform well during the US session. It lost significant gains against the euro as political tensions eased in Europe, although it managed to maintain its gains against the yen, the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar.

Potential catalysts coming on the economic calendar:

• The final Eurozone CPI will be announced at 9:00 AM GMT
• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment at 9:00 AM GMT
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index at 9:00 AM GMT
• US Retail Sales at 12:30 PM GMT
• US industrial production at 1:15 pm GMT
• FOMC Member Thomas Barkin will deliver a speech at 2:00 PM GMT
• Bank of Japan meeting minutes at 11:50 PM GMT
• Japan Trade Balance at 11:50 PM GMT

We may see increased volatility as the Eurozone lowers its final CPI numbers and sees the latest economic sentiment reports released by ZEW.

The industrial production report and FOMC member Barkin’s speech could shake up today’s US trading session, so you’d all better keep a close eye on the headlines in case you see trend opportunities during the week!

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