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The following shows our current and planned expectations regarding the maximum possible depth of chain realignment. We do not consider transactions within this depth to have an exceptionally high chance of being permanent. These are our own expectations only It does not constitute any kind of warranty. It is derived from theoretical considerations, ongoing empirical data, human factors in emergency planning, and the past experience of our security team. As with all things in the peer-to-peer space, the risk lies entirely with the individual operator.
In the same way as many in the industry, we will be monitoring the chain for any signs of protocol-level issues. If we have any reason to suspect there is a problem at the protocol level We will update these forecasts Accordingly; Updates will be posted in the forums and on the official blog. All those interested in our predictions and recommendations would do well to stay updated with the blog.
road map
Until 08/08/2015 18:00:00 CEST: 6000
From 08/08/2015 at 18:00:00 CEST, 3000 (about 12 hours)
(Day 1)
From 08/09/2015 at 18:00:00 CEST, 1500 (about 6 hours)
(3 days)
From 08/12/2015 at 18:00:00 CEST, 750 (about 3 hours)
(3 days)
From 08/15/2015 at 18:00:00 CEST, 375 (about 90 minutes)
(rest of borders)
Supplement 08/08/2015: You may be confused about what “string reorganization depth” means. Chain reorganizations happen when a node on the Ethereum network (a node that could belong to you, me, an exchange, a miner, or anyone else) realizes that what it is belief It turns out that the legal chain is not. When this happens, transactions in the last part of their chain (i.e. the most recent transactions) are rolled back and transactions are executed in the most recent replacement.
With Ethereum having a short target block time of 15 seconds, this happens naturally quite often. Since it takes time for blocks to propagate through the network, it is easy for different parts of the network to have a different final block (or two, or maybe even three) in normal operation since miners often come up with it at around the same time. This is what we might call it Ephemeral bifurcation. In fact, many of the ommers (né uncles) that you see in Ethereum network monitoring Some nodes once assumed that it was the final block in the basic chain.
When a reorganization occurs, or in other words, when the network reaches a more global consensus than it had previously fork Resolved, nodes containing the old chain now “reorganize” their chain, getting rid of recent and no longer canonical blocks. Transactions are rolled back and other transactions are executed to go along with the further path of the fork.
Transactions can be mutually exclusive, such as checks; If I had 100, which is very important because it is not possible to pay for both. This means that a reorganization can result in one transaction being undone and another mutually exclusive transaction being executed. As such, if you are going to perform an irreversible action on the back of an on-chain transaction, it is very important to know the risks related to the reorganization.
Roughly speaking, the chances of reorganization occurring decrease dramatically the farther away you are from the end. This means that the chance of a reorganization occurring that changes the final three blocks is much lower than the chance of a reorganization occurring that changes the final block alone. This is because the consensus algorithm is constantly seeking to reach a common agreement on what the chain is. As long as there is no consensus (and hence the possibility of reorganization), it is not in a stable state and will sooner or later turn to agreement. We call the number of blocks affected by the reorganization as Depth Of reorganization.
In general, reorganizations occur automatically and safely. However, anyone making realistic decisions based on on-chain transactions must be aware of the reorganizations that occur and, more importantly, must make a judgmental decision about how deep to go. That the transaction reaches him in the visible chain before they decide to do so last A chain and not just a temporary fork that will eventually be returned and resolved. The decision about how deep to wait, in Bitcoin terms, is called… Number of confirmations.
Our (rather high) expectations about the depth of the potential reorganization (which may very well amount to confirmation numbers) come from the fact that the protocol is immature, that human factors are involved in any therapeutic procedure and that large sums of money could be at stake. Basically, it’s boundaries. There are scenarios, especially those involving enemies (attackers (51%)) that we have designed in which we believe that having fairly large numbers is actually justified at this initial stage.
Ultimately, of course, we can only advise and inform: the risk as to how many “confirmations” to wait (or not) as with all operational decisions, rests with you. Welcome freedom 🙂
