.jpg)
CAD/CHF’s pullback seems to have found a short-term bottom!
Will it lead to the pair hitting new weekly highs in the next trading sessions?
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out GBP/CAD’s support zone ahead of the BOE’s policy decision. Make sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
The BOE held its main policy rate at 5.25% with a vote of 8 to hold and 1 to cut; Governor Bailey signals that they are not yet ready to cut
S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI for March: 52.5 vs. 52.2 previous; Services Business Activity Index was 51.7 vs. 52.3
U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims: 210K (216K forecast; 212K previous)
U.S. Existing home sales for February: 4.38M (3.95M forecast, 4.00M previous), marked the largest monthly increase since February 2023
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for March: 3.2 (-2.6 forecast, 5.2 previous); “Firms continued to report a decline in employment“; “Current price indexes suggest overall but less widespread increases in prices”
New Zealand’s trade deficit narrowed from 1.089 billion NZD to 218 million NZD as exports (16% m/m) outpaced imports (3.3% m/m) in February
Japan’s national core CPI edged up from 2.0% y/y to 2.8% y/y as expected in February
U.K.’s GfK consumer confidence steadied at -21 in March (vs. -19 expected) as the cost of living crisis and economic uncertainties weighed on sentiment
Price Action News
Overlay of AUD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TradingView
The U.S. dollar’s supremacy from the previous sessions took an extra toll on AUD today, which dealt with an extra kick lower from overall Chinese yuan weakness.
Word around the pip streets is that some Chinese state banks were intervening and buying onshore yuan to try and prop up the currency. Remember that China is one of Australia’s largest trading partners, so Chinese market weakness could translate to overall AUD weakness.
AUD is in the red across the board but is trading the lowest against USD and JPY. Meanwhile, it’s showing the least losses against counterparts like NZD, GBP, and EUR.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
U.K.’s retail sales at 7:00 am GMT
Germany’s IfO business climate at 9:00 am GMT
U.K. CBI industrial order expectations at 11:00 am GMT
Canada’s retail sales at 12:30 pm GMT
German Bundesbank President Nagel to give a speech at 1:00 pm GMT
Fed Chairman Powell to deliver opening remarks at 1:00 pm GMT
FOMC member Michael Barr to give a speech at 4:00 pm GMT
FOMC member Raphael Bostic to give a speech at 8:00 pm GMT
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! ️
CAD/CHF 15-min Forex Chart by TradingView
A surprise interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) earlier this week dragged CHF lower against its major counterparts including CAD.
CAD/CHF has pulled back down since then, but it seems like the retracement has found a floor just above the .6620 Pivot Point line. If the Canadian dollar continues to pull support from Canada’s relatively strong data releases (Canada’s retail sales report is coming up!) then CAD/CHF may hit the .6650 previous highs and even make new March highs in the next trading sessions.
But if CAD/CHF has found a top and gets rejected at the .6650 resistance zone, then we may get a trip back to the .6620 Pivot Point line.
What do you think? Can CAD/CHF extended its weekly gains? Or are the bears ready to drag the pair lower?
