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Most majors are stuck in consolidation recently, as some markets are closed for the Easter holidays.
Can EUR/USD still pull off a breakout with the U.S. core PCE price index coming up?
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out USD/CAD’s resistance test ahead of Canada’s monthly GDP. Make sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
Canadian economy expanded 0.6% in January vs. expected 0.4% growth figure, December 2023 GDP reading downgraded to show 0.1% contraction from initially reported flat reading
U.S. final GDP reading upgraded from 3.2% q/q to 3.4% in Q4 2023 vs. expectations of no change
U.S. initial jobless claims at 210K vs. 212K expected, 212K previous
U.S. Chicago PMI slipped from 44.0 to 41.4 vs. 45.9 forecast to reflect steeper pace of contraction in March
U.S. pending home sales rebounded by 1.6% m/m in February vs. estimated 1.4% figure, January reading revised from 4.9% slump to 4.7% decline
U.S. UoM consumer sentiment index upgraded from 76.5 to 79.4 in March to reflect stronger optimism
Tokyo core CPI dipped from 2.5% y/y to 2.4% as expected in March
Japan’s preliminary industrial production reading down 0.1% m/m in February vs. estimated 1.6% gain
Japanese retail sales jumped 4.6% year-over-year in February vs. projected 2.8% increase and previous 2.1% gain
Japanese housing starts slumped 8.2% y/y in February vs. estimated 5.4% drop
Price Action News
Overlay of USD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TradingView
Major pairs moved mostly sideways in the previous trading sessions, as European markets were closed for the Holy Week holidays. Profit-taking at the end of the week, month, and quarter also resulted to subdued volatility, with traders likely holding out for a fresh start on Monday.
Majority of mid-tier U.S. data turned out stronger than expected, as the final GDP reading for the last quarter of 2023 enjoyed a bit of an upgrade while pending home sales and the UoM consumer sentiment index reflected optimism among Americans.
Over in Japan, data came in somewhat downbeat, as the Tokyo core CPI fell a notch while the industrial production and housing starts figures fell short of estimates.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
U.S. core PCE price index at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. personal income and spending data at 12:30 pm GMT
FOMC member Daly’s speech at 2:00 pm GMT
FOMC head Powell’s testimony at 3:30 pm GMT
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! ️
EUR/USD 15-min Forex Chart by TradingView
EUR/USD has formed lower highs and is testing support around the 1.0775 mark, potentially creating a descending triangle pattern.
Will the floor hold during the release of the U.S. core PCE price index a.k.a. the Fed’s preferred inflation measure? In that case, a bounce back to the triangle top at the pivot point (1.0800) and major psychological mark might follow.
Or will another upside inflation surprise encourage dollar bulls to charge, taking the pair below S1 (1.0760) and onto the next downside target at S2 (1.0740)?
Leave your thoughts in the comments section below!
