Daily Market Construction – April 1, 2025

The main assets were throughout the plans on Tuesday, as the markets prepared for the “Liberation Day” definitions in Trump on April 2.

Gold and oil prices fell from their highest levels on Monday, while American bonds and US dollars decreased with the outbreak of definition.

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Tables:

• RBA maintained fixed rates at 4.10 %Aud recovered as a government of Bullock Dovish RBA ready -made meals
• The Japanese Tankan Manufacturing Index for Q1 2025: 12 (12 expectations, 14 previously); The non -manufacturing index increased from 33 to 35 (against 33)
• China Caixin PMI PMI For March: 51.2 (50.6 expectations, 50.8 previously); The factory portal prices have been reduced. The labor market has been improved “marginally”
• The final manufacturing managers of the Manufacturers of the Bank of Japan Au Jibun were revised in March from 48.3 to 48.4; The creation of job opportunities was the fastest seen so far in 2025; Reducing inflation resulting to the lowest level in five months
• Prain HCob Final Manufacturing PMI for March: 48.5 (48.9 forecasts; formerly 45.8)
• Germany HCob Final Manufacturing PMI for March March: 48.3 (48.3 forecasts; 46.5 previously)
• EURO Area HCob Final Manufacturing PMI for March: 48.6 (48.7 forecasts; 47.6 previously)
• Euro Area CPI For March: 2.2 % Y/Y (2.1 % forecast; 2.3 % previous); 0.6 % m/m (0.6 % forecast; 0.4 % previous); The basic consumer price index at 2.4 % on an annual basis (2.6 % expectations; 2.6 % previous)
• Switzerland Procure.ch Manufacturing PMi for March: 48.9 (50.5 forecasts; 49.6 previously)
• UK S & P Global Final Manufacturing PMI for March: 44.9 (44.6 expectations; formerly 46.9)
• PMI S & P Global Canada Manufacturing for March: 46.3 compared to 47.8 previously
• U.S. District Project Manager Index in the United States S&P for March: 50.2 (49.8 forecasts; 52.7 previously)
• United States ISM manufacturing PMI For the month of March: 49.0 (50.0 expectations; previous 50.3); Prices rose +7.0 to 69.4; The work has decreased -2.9 to 44.7
• American tremors jobs For February: 7.57M (7.6 million forecasts; 7.74m precedent); The adherence process decreased to 3.2 million compared to 3.27 meters previously
• Tom Parkin, a FOMC member, said that Trump’s tariff could raise inflation and unemployment alike
• European Commission President Ursula von der Lin It is a hint to hitting American service exports, including those in major technology companies, in response to the “Tahrir Day” tariff in Trump
• Prime Minister in Canada Mark Carne Repeat his willingness to put “retaliatory measures” in the event of an additional tariff on Canadian goods on April 2

Work market prices:

The main assets were everywhere on Tuesday, when merchants were placed before President Trump announced the definition to be held on April 2.

Early concerns arose from the Washington Post report, which indicates that White House aides have formulated a 20 % tariff proposal on most imports, although the advisers confirmed that there was no final decision. Trump later hinted that he would be “very nice” with a “mutual” approach.

This ambiguity has sent a 10-year treasury revenue sliding to 4.16 %-which is the lowest level since December-where investors have turned into safe havens. The stocks swing back and forth all day, and caught between the commercial hiking and hunting the potential deal. Biotechnology names and drugs were weight on indexes, but software stocks showed some relative force. In Europe, the markets were better, with DAX jump in Germany 1.67 %.

Gold fell marginally from its highest standard levels, WTI oil decreased from its highest levels in five weeks amid fears of supply after Trump threatened Russia with oil definitions from 25 to 50 % and Iran warned of “bombing” if it did not approve a nuclear agreement.

Bitcoin has seen great fluctuations, trading between $ 82,600 – 85,400 dollars before settling about $ 8,200. American economic data was disappointed by contracting with manufacturing activity in 49.0 in March, although construction spending increased by 0.7 %, which exceeds expectations.

Market behavior FX: US dollar against specialties:

The dollar is overpowered against the main currencies The graph by TradingView

The US dollar was everywhere on Tuesday, when merchants’ reaction to a cycle of mixed data and policy headlines was. Greenback began weaker, probably the optimistic PMI Caixin (51.2) risk morale and safe goats. The negative aspect that was held even after RBA maintained fixed rates at 4.10 %Which indicates the difference in limited policy at the present time.

In Europe, the dollar initially decreased despite the weak PMI in the eurozone (48.6), but it regained the land after the most enlarged inflation data (2.2 % on an annual basis). The printing is likely to raise April possibility European Central Bank Reducing prices, which prompted the reassessment of the difference in the average of the dollar.

More measures came in the American session. ISM and Jolts disappointing opportunities have increased the possibility of cuts in the Federal Reserve rate, leading to sharp sale of dollars. This step coincided with US revenues for 10 years, sliding to 4.156 %, which is the lowest level since December, as safe demand increased in the event of an induction uncertainty.

Later in the session, the dollar settled as attention turned to the declaration of the next Trump tariff. Reports, which glimpsed a narrower, targeted approach, helped reduce some pressure. The dollar ended with mixed, but the weakest in general against basic commodity currencies.

Possible incentives coming to the economic evaluation:

• France’s budget balance at 6:45 am GMT
• Change unemployment in Spain at 7:00 am GMT
• Changing employment in the United States ADP is not a farm at 12:15 pm GMT
• American factory orders at 2:00 pm GMT
• US crude oil stocks at 2:30 pm GMT
• US President Trump to deliver a speech at 8:00 pm GMT
• FOMC Kugler Member to deliver a letter at 8:30 pm GMT

Traders can anticipate a relatively quiet European session, with second -class data such as the French budget balance and Spanish unemployment is unlikely to raise major moves unless the German bond auction is surprised.

In the United States, the concerns of definitions with Trump can heat up a letter at 8:00 pm GMT. Meanwhile, the eyes will also be in the ADP recruitment report for evidence before the NFP report on Friday.

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