Daily Market Construction – March 31, 2025

Gold rose to record the highlands and a bounce ward Definitions In all countries, they shook the feeling of global risks.

Japanese Nikkei has decreased by approximately 4 %, while strengthening the dollar against commodity currencies and fixed fixed bitcoin near 82,500 dollars despite chaos.

Reading to see the main market movements and engines that you have missed in recent trading sessions:

Tables:

• On Sunday, US President Trump said this week The customs tariff will include countries “mainly” all “countriesNot just a smaller group of countries where market prices
• On Sunday, US President Trump threatened Secondary definitions on “All oil comes out of Russia” If he believes that Russia is holding a ceasefire with Ukraine
• Goldman Sachs lifted The possibility of American recession from 20 % to 35 % Within 12 months, three interest rates are expected this year
• Japanese Finance Minister Katsonobo Kato said that he would closely communicate with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent against “excessive currency movements”
• Japanese industrial production for the month of February: 2.5 % M/M (2.0 % expectations; -1.1 % previously)
• China NBS manufacturing PMI For March: 50.5 (50.5 forecasts; previous 50.2); Non -manufactured PMI at 50.8 (50.5 forecasts; 50.4 previously)
• Australia’s inflation scale TD -MI for March: 0.7 % M/M (0.3 % expectations; -0.2 % previously)
• New Zealand Anz Business Trust in March: 57.5 (58.0 forecasts; 58.4 previously)
• The rate of inflation in Germany In March: 0.4 % m/m (0.4 % forecast; 0.5 % previous); 2.3 % y/y (2.4 % expectations; 2.6 % previous)
• German import prices have grown at the fastest pace in more than two years in February
• Net individual lending in the United Kingdom for February: 4.6b (forecast 5.2B; 5.95B)
• Procurement managers in the American Chicago for March: 47.6 (43.0 forecasts; 45.5 previously)
• The U.S. Index in the United States in Dallas decreased from -8.3 to -16.3 in March; Wages and selling prices “remained stable”
• FOMC voting member John Williams He said that maintaining interest rates “for some time” will allow officials to study the data received before specifying their next steps
• The FOMC member Thomas Parkin said that the uncertainty raises an issue “to wait and know” how to play Trump’s tariff plans.
• France Marine Le Pen I am convicted of the body, it is forbidden to run for public positions for a period of five years
• European Central Bank of Lagarde The data analysis is preferred, and the anticipation and prediction are inhibited.

Work market prices:

There was a lot of medium data released on Monday, but the main assets mostly focused on Trump and April 2.Editing Day“Definitions that may target” all countries “instead of commercial partners. Goldman Sachs shocked the chances of their stagnation in the United States to 35 %, indicating a decline in work confidence and the risk of recession-inflation fueled by mixed crowd with weaker growth.

American stocks He landed early but returned to their return as investors tried to understand mixed messages from federal reserve officials. S&P 500 and Dow closed in green, while Nasdaq ended a little less. In Europe, there was no recovery like the main indicators that achieved great success. But Asia felt greater pain, as Nikki dung in Japan nearly 4 % on fears of the repercussions of car export.

Safe havens gathered with merchants’ stampede to cover amid uncertainty in the growing global trade. gold It rose to new standard levels above $ 3100, and Treasury bonds It caught a strong offer, as it sent 10 -year revenue to 4.19 % before it fell to 4.21 %.

Bitcoin Surprising elasticity showed, as it decreased at first but about $ 82,500, indicating that some merchants view digital assets as hedging against the volatility of the Fiat coin during commercial tensions. US oil Prices also rose to $ 71.50 despite growth concerns, which were raised by geopolitical risks after Trump threatened Russia with secondary oil sanctions.

Market behavior FX: US dollar against specialties:

The dollar is overpowered against the main currencies The graph by TradingView

The US dollar gained on Monday, when the market’s reaction to Trump’s weekend declared a tariff “All countries”. Early Asian watches have seen the purchase of a wide dollar with the exception of the Japanese yen, with the US dollar/JPY drop to less than 149.00 where investors sought traditional safe havens. The best industrial production data for the expected (2.5 % compared to 2.3 %) and PMI in China (50.5) had a limited impact on the main dollar pairs.

During European trading, the consumer price index in Germany and the import price briefly pressed Greenback before finding support. EUR/USD managed to minimal losses, only 0.10 % decrease, probably supported by members of the European Central Bank, indicating high interest rates of Taiba, with a reference to Panetta “cannot be considered to be considered to be considered to fight inflation.”

A noticeable transformation about the PMI version in Chicago (47.6 versus 44.1 expected), causing a temporary gathering of the dollar before the gains faded as Federal Reserve officials delivered mixed policy signals.

By the end of the day, the American dollar flexibility reflected the uncertainty in the market about the implementation of the customs tariffs and economic consequences before the official announcement on Wednesday. The strength of the dollar was more clear against commodity and sensitive currencies, with 0.62 % gain against AUD, 0.65 % against NZD, and 0.48 % against CAD.

Possible incentives coming to the economic evaluation:

• UK National HPI at 6:00 am GMT
• Retail sales in Switzerland at 6:30 am GMT
• PMI Manufacture Spain at 7:15 am GMT
• Switzerland Manufacture of Participated Directors Index at 7:30 am GMT
• Italy manufacturing PMI at 7:45 am GMT
• France Index Manager Manager in France at 7:45 am GMT
• Germany manufacturing the participating managers index at 7:55 am GMT
• PMI Final Manufacturing in the eurozone at 8:00 am GMT
• UK member at MPC Grene to deliver a letter at 8:15 am GMT
• UK manufacturing information managers index at 8:30 am GMT
• CPI Flash estimates in the euro area at 9:00 am GMT
• The unemployment rate in the euro area at 9:00 am GMT
• European Central Bank President Lagarde to deliver a letter at 12:30 pm GMT
• FOMC Barkin Member to deliver a letter at 1:00 pm GMT
• Canada Manufacturing PM at 1:30 pm GMT
• Permanent manufacturing PMI at 1:45 pm GMT
• USM Manufacturing PMI at 2:00 pm GMT
• Jolts job opportunities at 2:00 pm GMT
• USM manufacturing prices ISM at 2:00 pm GMT
• Building in the United States at 2:00 pm GMT
• US RCM/Tipp economic optimism at a temporary time
• New Zealand GDT price index temporarily
• New Zealand building approvals at 9:45 pm GMT

The European session is full of data of purchasing managers and flash estimates of the consumer price index in the euro area that can pay euro fluctuations, especially with speaking in the middle of the day, while the pound may interact with the comments from Grene from MPC.

In the United States, all eyes will be on ISM manufacturing data, opening Jolts functions, and inflation signals from paid prices, with park notes that are likely to specify the dollar tone.

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