Excellent monitoring list: March 31, 2025

This week, the currency strategy focused on the RBA monetary policy for possible high -quality settings.

From scenario discussions/price forecasts this week, It can be said that one discussion witnessed both artistic arguments To become potential candidates for Trade Management and Risk Management overlap.

The monitoring lists are the price discussions and the strategy supported by both the basic and technical analysis, which is a decisive step towards creating a A high -quality estimated trade idea Before working on the risk management and trade plan.

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Aud/CHF: Tuesday – 31 March, 2025

On Tuesday, the strategists had their attention in the RBA monetary policy statement and its potential impact on the Australian dollar. Based on our Event guideThe expectations of RBA have to keep interest rates are 4.10 %, as the markets are looking for signs about the direction of future policy and concerns about the US tariff policies. With these expectations in mind, here we were thinking about:

With these expectations in mind, here we were thinking about:

“Australian High” scenario:

If RBA maintains its optimistic position with caution against inflation or showing resistance to discounts in the short term, we have expected that this could be temporarily strengthened AUD but eventually attracts the declining pressure with the announcement of the tariffs that are waving on the horizon. We focused on the potential primary pop on Aud/JPY, which could have taken the husband to the resistance areas near the period or testing a possible AUD/CAD domain in an environment on the risk, given the speculation of American tariff exemptions for Canada.

“Aussie Avalanche” scenario:

If RBA refers to a shift towards more aggressive price cuts or an expression of growing growth interests, especially with regard to American tariffs and economic expectations in China, we thought this could affect AUD. We looked at AUD/NZD for possible short strategies in a risk environment, especially given the improved economic indicators in New Zealand. If the feeling of risk remains negative, Aud/CHF looked short and promising Looking at the traditional francs’ position of the safe amid increasing commercial tensions and the position of the pair near the resistance of the descending triangle.

What actually happened:

the RBA maintained fixed rates at 4.10 % as expected And maintain an optimistic position with caution against inflation. The main points of the statement:

• The Central Bank indicated that “basic inflation is moderate” and “has decreased dramatically from peak in 2022”
• The Board of Directors retained that the policy remains “restricted”, which means that it still sees some land pressure on inflation
• RBA dropped a clear indication of caution about cutting prices more, which analysts were explained as a somewhat signal
• The statement spent longer than usual in discussing global risks, especially American definitions, noting that “the recent announcements from the United States on customs tariffs have an impact on confidence worldwide.”
• The bank has warned that the broader or revenge measures may harm global growth and add to the uncertainty in inflation

The ruler Bullock has strengthened a more balanced tone in its press conference, stressing that they cannot declare victory over inflation yet, explaining that their decision in February was not a sign of a series of upcoming discounts. She described this reduction as a “difficult decision” and stressed that the additional cuts depend on the data received.

Market reaction:

This result mainly sparked the Aud Handish scenarios, and with risk morale deteriorating quickly due to world trade fears, Aud/Chf has become our husband to see it.

Looking at the AUD/CHF chart, we can see the husband initially found some support about the level of 0.5530 after RBA decision and Goovernor Bullock comments. There was a higher batch with compensation for the balanced tone from Bullock to the Dovish statement, but the husband is struggling to overcome the resistance in the 0.5560-75 area around the top of the descending triangle.

The real procedure started during the United States session on Wednesday when President Trump announced the “Liberation Day” tariffWhich were much higher and wider than market expectations. AUD/CHF immediately retreated from the triangle resistance and then engaged to the bottom of the support at 0.5525, confirming our stressful expectations with a sharp deterioration of global risks.

By Friday, the husband decreased to its lowest level for several months about 0.5180 after China announced reprisals against American goods, including a 34 % tariff for rare Earth exports. The Australian dollar, which is very sensitive to both Chinese economic expectations and global commercial flows, bears the weight of the sale while the Swiss franc benefited from strong safe flows.

Judgment:

So, how do we do? Our basic analysis expects the potential weakness of the AUD if global commercial concerns overwhelm RBA, which played in an exciting way. Correctly define our technical analysis AUD/CHF and CHF style and Even resistance levels in the near term on other pairs That contains any bounce after RBA before the decisive collapse.

We believe that this discussion is “very likely” supported a clear positive result as basic and technical operators are completely compatible. While RBA itself was not excessively superior, her concerns about world trade risks have proven that Presscient only one day when Trump’s tariff declared the collapse of the AUD/CHF triangle.

Traders who entered short centers near the triangle resistance after the RBA event, one of the largest weekly movements in the AUD/CHF (more than 6.5 % decrease). Even the conservative profit goals would have been reached quickly, and the backward stations allowed to take this extended step with the escalation of global trade tensions.

The main meals here is that the central bank event itself sometimes puts the stage only, while external factors provide the catalyst for the main movement. In this case, the RBA warning of commercial tensions in a timely manner has proven significantly, giving merchants valuable heads before the tariff announcement sparked the collapse.

However, it is also important to note that with the proof of the “liberation day” that proves to be the biggest risk of events and market driver, the most wise trade management option was to reduce RBA visions and the effects of AUD but awaiting the actual tariff ads before taking any jobs.