Fed to start cutting rates in July – ABN Amro

Analysts at ABN Amro share an update to their Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook following the latest inflation data.

Total of three 25bp cuts expected in 2024

“We now expect the Fed to start cutting rates in July (previously June), with a pause in September, and a total of three 25bp cuts expected in 2024 (previously five). Rates are expected to fall to the estimated neutral level of 3% by November 2025.”

“We do not think the Fed is wedded to changing policy in quarterly projection months, and nor do we think the election timing is a significant factor. Our ECB view is unchanged; it would take a much sharper move in the euro to affect ECB cuts. Rates forecast update: The change in Fed view raises our near-term short-end yield forecasts for the US, but long-end yield forecasts are much less impacted. Our euro rates forecasts are mostly unchanged.”