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The high global risks appetite and the federal reserves’ sizes from low rates of golden capabilities. However, the golden purchases of central banks and the constant political certainty are strengthened hauusd husband. Let’s discuss this topic and develop a trading plan.
The article covers the following topics:
Main meals
- The Federal Reserve will not reduce prices at least to July.
- The cancellation of the escalation of commercial conflicts is to pressure safe assets.
- Central banks continue to buy precious metals.
- Consider gold trading within $ 3,100-3,400.
Monthly basic forecast for gold
Gold found itself in a difficult position amid market morale. The American administration is working hard to photograph the progress made in commercial conversations, and the Federal Reserve intends to maintain the rate of federal funds by 4.5 % for a long time, which leads to pressure on safe assets. However, even the slightest offer to be unable to predict or aggressive discourse in Donald Trump is enough to make an increase in hauusd husband.
The political uncertainty and continuous expectations that the American economy, which may eventually lead to recession and is forced into the federal reserve in alleviating aggressive monetary policy, preventing the deeper decline in gold. Any correction is likely to remain limited to a scale between 3000 and 3,100 dollars per ounce.
Gold is also supported by the increasing central bank appetite for precious metals. China has increased its golden reserves for six consecutive months, adding about 30 tons during this period. However, the precious metal still represents only 8 % of the total foreign exchange reserves in the country. If the Popular Bank of China wants to raise this to the advanced global average by 20 %, amid an escalating commercial conflict, it will have to buy 40 tons of gold per month for a period of three years.
China’s golden reserves
Source: Bloomberg.
Canceling the escalation of commercial conflicts and the Federal Reserve’s frequency in reducing interest rates until at least July hauusd husband. But why does the Federal Reserve in this way behave if its decisions are affected by the influence of the White House on the American economy? Once the 90 -day tariff in Washington has expired, the cash expansion course can resume.
If the recession signs appear by that time, gold may regain its momentum. However, at the present time, the growing global risks and the failure of the Federal Reserve is reaching the potential of the Xauusd Xuusd pair within the range of $ 3,400 – $ 3500.
Federal reserve rate forecasts in the United States
Source: Bloomberg.
The main long-term scenario of gold refers to uniformity in the range of 3,100-3,400 dollars an ounce. The penetration that exceeds this range, followed by a return to these levels, may provide an opportunity to open trading.
The 3300 dollar sign is expected to be a major gold level in the short term. Whether there is or fall below, this will depend on the results of the United States and China’s commercial negotiations. A more reconciliation situation from the United States will indicate the removal of commercial tensions and can increase the declining pressure on gold. On the other hand, if China is resisting pressure to negotiate unfavorable conditions, it may pay renewable tensions hauusd It was associated with a sign of $ 3400 and higher.
The monthly trading plan for gold
the Previous strategy It has proven to buy gold in a recovery of $ 3,200. Now, merchants must prepare for medium -term uniformity. Consider opening long deals as soon as a false outbreak occurred to support $ 3,100 and is traded if the original fails to penetrate the resistance of $ 3,400.
This expectation depends on an analysis Basic factorsIncluding official data from financial institutions and organizers, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data is also.
Xauusd price scheme in real time mode
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