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Last week, after a long consolidation, Gold
finished the week on a strong note as the price rallied into the weekend
setting a new all-time high. As previously mentioned, the market should remain
supported as we head into the easing cycle, but in the short term we might see
pullbacks if the US data continues to come out strong as that would likely
delay the rate cuts. Watch out for this week as we get many key economic data
that could put the price under pressure in case we get strong figures.
Gold Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
Gold Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that Gold last week
surged into the weekend extending the rally into a new all-time high. The price
got a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such
instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some
consolidation before the next move. In this case, the pullback would come
around the trendline where we
can find the red 21 moving average for confluence. That’s
where we can expect the buyers to buy the dip, while the sellers will look for
a break lower to target new lows.
Gold Technical Analysis – 4
hour Timeframe
Gold 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the latest leg
higher diverged with the
MACD, which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, we might get a pullback into the previous all-time
high where we can find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to position for a break below the trendline with a better risk
to reward setup.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1
hour Timeframe
Gold 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have
another minor trendline where the buyers might lean onto as they will also find
the confluence of the red 21 moving average. Traders might want to split their
position in half as the price can bounce from either level. The sellers, on the
other hand, should pile in at every break lower to target new lower lows.
Upcoming Events
This week we get the release of many key economic data.
We begin today with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we have the US Job
Openings. On Wednesday, we get the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI data. On
Thursday, we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we
conclude with the US NFP report. Strong data is likely to weigh on Gold, while
weak figures should give it a boost.
