Good upside potential for NOK once USD rates start moving lower – ING

Norges Bank maintained the policy rate as expected but we got a slightly hawkish surprise. Economists at ING analyze Norwegian Krone’s (NOK) outlook after the central bank decision.

Norges Bank’s cautious tone on policy and focus on the domestic currency performance offer a good basis

Norges Bank remained generally hawkish as it kept rate projections unchanged and signalled rate cuts should only start in the autumn, and will be gradual. 

We have continued to hear Governor Ida Wolder Bache sounding rather concerned about the weak NOK-higher inflation risks if rates are cut too soon. Indeed, the soft performance of Krone since the start of the year does not give her reasons to sound more relaxed on this topic. 

We continue to see good upside potential for NOK once USD rates start moving lower, with Norges Bank’s cautious tone on policy and focus on the domestic currency performance offering a good basis.