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Rawd or not a stagnation? This is the question of one million dollars on the minds of most people and companies recently.
On the one hand, unemployment is still near its lowest historical levels, and the average wage growth is heading up to inflation, which supports spending. On the other hand, the risk of inflation, signs of weak job market, and uncertainty in definitions negatively affect the feeling of consumer.
What happens next to the economy is crucial to what is happening next to the stock market. Recently, the stock market did not like what I heard.
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S&P 500 decreased by 9 % on an annual basis, while the nasdaq technology boat fell by more than 13 %. Many of this decrease occurred last month, which was accelerated by President Trump’s advertisements on liberation, which imposed import taxes ranging from 10 % to 40 % or more in the case of China.
Market tensions are not lost amid a lack of economic clarity in Jimmy Morgan Chis, CEO Jimmy Damon. Dimon is one of the most business leaders in America.
On Friday, Damon presented his latest ideas on US economy and markets. Looking at his position at the top of the country’s largest bank, which is likely to allow him to reach the mentality of the chief executives through the spectrum, his visions deserve to be considered.
Is the market stagnation on the horizon?
The arcade arguments are still correct, but cracks appear.
Those who expect we will do the side stagnation refer to a strong job market. This is definitely true. The unemployment rate is 4.2 %, and this is still a relative historical low.
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Also, the average real weekly wages, which adjusts the income of inflation, is positive, indicating that the normal factor still grows income quickly than inflation – urinary spending. In March, the changes in the average profits per hour and there is no change in the average work week Average real weekly profits It increased by 1.6 % from one year, according to the work statistics office.
There are also many unforgivable functions. There are 7.6 million open jobs in February, according to the latest job opportunities and employment rotation, or tremors.
So far, we have not seen much change in retail activity. Retamentation and food sales between November and February increased by 3.8 % over the previous year.
However, this data fails to appear, and in some cases, it is already flourishing.
For example, the unemployment rate increased by 4.2 % from 3.5 % recently in 2023, and there were 8.4 million open jobs in February 2024, much more than now.
Workers’ layoff also rises. Labor employees announced 497,052 of layoffs in the first quarter, the largest number of the first quarter since 2009, and an increase of 93 % of Q1, 2024, according to Challenger, Gray, & Christmas.
Solid data does not yet appear, but soft data, such as consumer morale, indicates that shoppers are more related to keeping wallets in the pockets and fingers than the “Buy” button.
The Conference Council’s expectations were 65 in March, much lower than 80 level is a recessive red mark.
“Consumer expectations were particularly dark, with pessimism about future working conditions deepening and confidence in future employment prospects to the lowest level in 12 years,” said Stephanie Gwechadd, chief economist of the Conference Council at the Conference Council.
Jimmy Damon Totz, the possibility of recession, weighs on stocks
At the JP Morgan Chase Conference on April 11, Jimmy Damon was asked about the current possibility of stagnation in the United States in 2025.
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Dion said: “What I would like to say is the expert of the excellent economy, Michael Feli; I specifically called him this morning to ask him how they look at their expectations today,” Dion said. “They think it is about 50-50 for stagnation.”
The currency is not excessively encouraging. And what Damon hears from his network of business leaders is not very reassuring.
“Many people do not do things because of this.” “They will wait and see. This is the integration and purchase, and democracy with medium market companies, which are plans to employ people and things like that.”
Waiting and vision mentality is not great for economic activity, and employment plans may mean that the risk of unemployment is greater by modern definitions increased the risk of inflation and a decline in gross domestic product.
More economic analysis:
- Wall Street Replauls S & P 500 PRICE TARGETS, where customs tariffs are accelerated
- Inflation wants one word, please
- The stocks can be bounced, but the profits of the large banks carry the cards
The lack of clarity may become more clear. Since more companies report their profits in the first quarter and offer expectations for the rest of the year, Dimon believes that many will leave the opportunity to remove the guidance.
“You will hear a report on a thousand companies, and they will tell what their directions are,” Damon said. “Get me up is that many will remove it.”
Wall Street is likely to rethink their profit expectations if companies withdraw their instructions, which led to their decrease.
“We have mentioned that our interest is entitled 2025 profitability for the share Theastet Pro Post. “Our accession to us in this thinking is Jimmy Damorgan, who said it is expected to decrease the estimates of corporate profits, amid the uncertainty that Press Donald Trump’s commercial negotiations will decrease.”
Any widespread decline in profit forecast can climb the S&P 500 rates to profits, achieving the latest progress in restoring P/E to historical averages.
“The analyst community has already reduced its S&P’s profit estimates by 5 %,” Damon said. “So, now increased by 5 % instead of a 10 % increase. I think it will be 0 % and negative 5 % maybe next month.”
The P/E to the front S&P 500 is 19.0, less than an average of 5 years 19.9, but higher than an average of 10 years of 18.3, according to FactSet. It was higher than 22 in February before selling the stock market.
If the recession is achieved, it is likely that it will decrease the shares, but Damon does not see it bad for the JP Morgan stock.
He says that regardless of the bad or moderate recession, “The profits will not be great, and the arrow will decrease, which I look at as an opportunity to restore more stocks.”
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