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Although he considered the weak at the beginning of the year, the Canadian dollar gained traction after Mark Carney’s meeting with Donald Trump. Canada is not for sale, but it does not have what it offers in exchange for removing definitions. Let’s discuss this topic and develop a trading plan for USDCAD husband.
The article covers the following topics:
Main meals
- Canada does not intend to sell its sovereignty.
- Ottawa plans to convert its commercial focus away from the United States into other countries.
- The risk of green fall against LONIE is at its highest level since 2009.
- Consider selling a USDCAD pair with goals of 1.362 and 1.35.
Weekly basic forecasts for the Canadian dollar
Donald Trump has no intention to include Canada without the approval of the Canadians themselves. Speaking at the White House, Mark Carney insists on Assad’s den, that the country is not offered for sale. Just as some real estate is never sold, as the American president, who has achieved billions of dollars, knows well. Thus, never less. The US President is direct as always, and he has caused his meeting with the Canadian Prime Minister USDCAD The exchange rate for the fall.
Donald Trump’s words encouraged the Canadians that the Canadians have taken the right choice for Mark Carney, which means that the Free Trade Agreement in North America is a good deal for everyone. However, the conversation concluded without a solution. After the dialogue, the US President indicated that Canada has nothing to provide to the United States in exchange for raising definitions. The only thing Ottawa has gained is time. It is encouraging to note that the risk associated with USDCAD has not been low since 2009.
Usdcad risk reflection direction
Source: Bloomberg.
The shock has shrunk on April 2, and the two countries are now negotiating with the United States regarding definitions while engaging in special discussions. The United States is not the only option. If he restricts access to her super luxurious store, others will enter. Modern data shows a major shift in Canadian foreign trade: Exports to the United States decreased by 6.6 % in March, which represents a sharp decrease since the records began in 1997.
Canada’s gross domestic product expanded by 1.5 % in the first quarter, reflecting the strong US imports. This is an excellent performance, especially in light of the contraction that the American economy suffers from, which is struggling with a standard trade deficit. This difference has fed a declining direction in USDCAD husband.
American trade deficit and imports
Source: Bloomberg.
The 90 -day tariff indicates that the trends that were observed in January to March are likely to continue in April to June, albeit on a smaller scale. At the same time, Canada has gained time to redirect its exports, allowing it to adopt a positive look at the future of the Canadian dollar.
Although the Bank of Canada discussed the possibility of reducing its rate during the night in April, it eventually left it unchanged by 2.75 %, which does not necessarily mean that it will reduce monetary policy at its next meeting. Central banks tend to act in a coordinated manner. Therefore, if the US Federal Reserve decides to remain cautious because of the uncertainty surrounding the policy of the United States, others will follow its example.
Weekly
Looking at these conditions, the declining trend is likely to resume in USDCAD husband. While the original is traded less than 1.385, think about following the previous StrategyIndicating the opening of short deals with 1.362 and 1.35 goals.
This expectation depends on an analysis Basic factorsIncluding official data from financial institutions and organizers, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data is also.
Usdcad price scheme in actual time
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