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The week will start slowly in terms of scheduled economic events, but the markets will remain at a state of alert for any unexpected advertisements from the American administration, especially with regard to possible revenge definitions.
On Tuesday, the UK will issue a change in the number of claims, the average profit index/Y, and the unemployment rate. In Canada, attention will turn into inflation data.
On Wednesday, inflation data brings UK sales numbers and retail trade from the United States in Canada, and the focus will be on the declaration of monetary policy of Canada. In addition, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell Powell is scheduled to talk about the economic expectations of the Economic Club in Chicago.
On Thursday, New Zealand will issue its inflation data, while Australia will publish the change of employment and unemployment rate. The euro area will also focus with the declaration of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank.
Most of the major banks will be closed on Friday to monitor the great Friday.
In the United Kingdom, the consensus of the number of those demanding is 30.3 km compared to 44.2 km. The average profit index is expected to be 3M/y at 5.7 %, just less than the previous 5.8 %, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4 %.
The labor market shows the cooling signs, although wage growth is relatively strong. Regarding the monetary policy, the Bank of England has not ended with discounts in prices, especially since inflation is still high and exceeded the target.
CPI/y in the UK is expected to decrease only from 2.8 % to 2.7 %, and this is probably due to low gas prices. However, inflation of services proves to be more stubborn.
In the United States, the consensus of the basic retail sales of M/M 0.4 % compared to 0.3 %, and the M/m retail sales are 1.4 % compared to the previous 0.2 %.
Analysts suggest that one of the main reasons for strong retail sales data may be consumers with major purchases before the expected definitions. It highlights a noticeable jump by 10.6 %/m in car sizes based on wings data, as well as increasing credit card spending on devices and electronics.
It is expected that the uncertainty about tariffs will continue at the present time, and its impact on future economic data will continue to be closely monitored.
An inflation data will be released in Canada on Tuesday before the BOC meeting. CPI M/M consensies is 0.7 % for previous 1.1 %; The CPI Y/Y is expected to remain unchanged at 2.9 %; The CPI/Y Clicked is also expected to settle by 2.9 %, while the common consumer price index is likely to decrease from 2.5 % to 2.4 %.
Analysts are divided on whether BOC will provide price cuts at this week’s meeting. While the recent inflation data has surprised the upper direction, and the uncertainty surrounding the definitions remains high, the weakness of the labor market and economic growths may support the issue to reduce another. Wells Fargo analysts refer to a decrease of 32.6 thousand people in March and the actual deterioration of commercial morale that was captured by the BOC business survey in February, even before the customs duties in the United States entered into force.
In New Zealand, the CPI Q/Q consensus is 0.7 % compared to the previous 0.5 %, with an annual average of 2.3 %. This Westpac attributes this to high food and fuel costs.
Although inflation is less than the goal of the middle point in RBNZ, it still falls within the target range by 1-3 %. From the perspective of monetary policy, even if inflation surprises the bullish direction, it is unlikely to change the position of the bank’s policy in the short term.
In Australia, the consensus of the recruitment change is 40.2 thousand compared to -52.8 thousand, and the unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly from 4.1 % to 4.2 %.
After the sharp decrease last month, a strong recovery is expected. Analysts from Westpac indicated that March is expected to bring a recovery in the participation rate, as it rises from 66.8 % to 67.0 %, which supports recovery recovery. Although the former hurricane weather disorders add some uncertainty, it is expected that any effect on the data is limited.
At this week’s meeting, the European Central Bank is widely expected to provide a rate of 25 -bit per second to 2.25 %. Recently, the bank had a little tone as the economic situation in Germany and the wider turquoise show signs of improvement. However, the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs is expected to add pressure tariffs in the near future.
The inflation data in the euro area showed continuous progress, especially in basic inflation and services, and supporting price discounts. Analysts expect additional discounts of 25 points per second in June and September meetings, reducing the deposit rate to 1.75 % by the end of the year.
