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The American economy seems to have already received very good news to start the week. This was what the financial markets say late on Sunday.
Good news: Reports that the United States and China seem ready to negotiate a new trade deal that would decrease the definitions of goods between the two countries again.
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Currently, it’s very high – by 145 % on goods coming from China and 125 % on the goods that are shipped to China – so that there is no feasibility. A little point that saw the port of Los Angeles and the other West Coast ports is an activity that suddenly shrinks.
Related: What is the quality of the Chinese commercial deal? It is better to ask Wall Mart
Do not spend $ 100 on, for example, a box of ink for a laser printer and then spend another $ 145 in definitions just to enter the precious ink in the United States.
So, the expectation – at the present time – is that negotiators will work to formulate a new tariff system that will keep President Trump happy and allow high tariff rates at reasonable levels that support trade.
There was a 85 % tariff on Chinese imports on Friday. The road is very high. Again, do not spend $ 100 on a box of inks and up to another $ 85 to enter the United States.
Howard Lootnick, a 34 % tariff, suggested a 34 % tariff for China. Again, do you want to spend $ 1,000 on a high -level chair and another $ 340 of customs tariff fees, as well as shipping, sales taxes and other fees?
We do not design a tariff system. For us, however, it is fair to refer to realistic effects.
Peter Bokarar, chief investment official in the Blackley Financial Group, believes that the highest tariff rate “could not be more than 20 % and even it will be difficult for many.”
Therefore, enjoy good news from Geneva: the two teams discovered something. They can talk to each other.
For this reason, late on Sunday, the futures market markets were 1.3 % on the Standard & Poor’s 500. This index could put 6.6 % less than 52 weeks lower at 6,147 on Monday. The index last time reached this level on February 19.
We’ll see how this plays. We still do not know all the details.
More definitions:
- Tesla, Elus Musk makes a radical decision in the trade war between the United States and China
- The main American auto manufacturing company makes a harsh decision in the wake of TUSEL
- The definitions will destroy this entire industry
Related: Scott Galloway offers a great prediction of the global economy
The Federal Reserve says it makes decisions based on data. The central bank will receive a lot of data this week. This is the thicker.
Inflation reports
CPI report
On Tuesday, the work statistics office launches a consumer price index report in April. It is expected to appear on a 2.4 % annual profit, even if analysts see a decrease in the index from month to month. (This is likely to reflect the decrease in gasoline prices.) It is expected that the basic consumer price index, which comes out of food and energy, is expected to work 2.8 % on an annual basis.
PPI report
On Thursday, BLS, part of the Ministry of Labor, issued a report of producers. This measures the costs of inputs to make things. It is expected to appear 2.7 % profit on an annual basis, as the basic index showed an annual change by 3.4 %.
The reports will disturb the Trump administration that wants to reduce the Federal Reserve interest rates. The federal reserve, as it is known, wants to decrease the inflation to 2 % first.
Unemployment claims
This weekly report is measured on Thursday by the Ministry of Labor, measures new files, which decreased by 13,000 last week, and continuous demands. This rose 17,861 last week. If the economy starts drowning quickly, this report will be among the first to see it.
Two main manufacturing reports
Federal Reserve banks in New York and Philadelphia are released monthly reports of activity in their areas. Reports, which will be issued on Thursday, tend to capture details that do not appear in national reports. The reports of both banks for March showed a decrease in activity while reducing employers instead of jobs.
Housing and construction permits begin
These reports, which came out on Friday from the American Statistical Office, are trying to measure housing activity throughout the country. The activity was slow because of two major and fixed problems
- High prices.
- High mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are in or just less than 7 %, and qualify for mortgage is particularly difficult for buyers for the first time.
The Wall Street Journal indicated that the spring purchase season of the house “is formed as a country.”
Mostly, construction shares are struggling in 2025. ((Itb)) The trading box for exchange is still 11 %.
Among the components of ETF, Dr. Horton’s shares ((DHI)) One of the largest home construction companies is of 12.7 % this year. Home Depot ((HD)) 6.8 % decreased, but the Cherwin Williams Will Maker ((what)) It rises 4.4 %.
Consumer morale index at the University of Michigan
This is a soft indicator that is widely monitored by Friday. That is, he holds consumer optimism or pessimism. These positions may spread in economic data. (Sometimes, pessimism is never translated into spending changes.) Friday is a first draft with a final draft issued at the end of the month.
The index was consistent. It has decreased for four consecutive months, as consumers feel anxious about prices and jobs.
The consumer confidence index in the conference council tends to confirm the results of Michigan. The report on consumer expectations for the future said it was at the lowest level since October 2011.
Related: The Veteran Fund Director reveals the prediction of the S&P 500
