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The dollar has maintained positive dynamics while market participants continue to evaluate important publications of the previous 2 weeks, as well as the results of the meetings of the ECB, the RB of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada held last week.
In the week 15.04.2024 – 21.04.2024, market participants will pay attention to the publication of important macro statistics from the US, China, the UK, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled events may be cancelled. Time is GMT
Monday, April 15
12:30 USD Retail sales. Retail control group
Retail sales. This Census Bureau report reflects the total sales of US retailers of all sizes and types. Changes in retail sales are a leading indicator of consumer spending. The report is a leading indicator, and the data may be subject to significant revisions in the future. A high result strengthens the US dollar, a low result weakens it. A relative decrease in the indicator may have a short-term negative impact on the dollar, while an increase in the indicator will have a positive impact on the USD. In the previous month (February), the indicator value was +0.6% (after -0.8% in January 2024, +0.6% in December 2023, +0.3%, -0.1% +0, 7%, +0.6%, +0.7%, +0.2%, +0.3%, +0.4%, -1.0%, -0.6%, +3.2% , -0.8%, -1.1%, +1.1%, -0.2%, +0.7%, -0.4%, +1.0% in previous months).
Retail sales are the leading indicator of consumer spending in the United States measuring changes in retail sales. Retail Control Group measures volume across the entire retail industry and is used to calculate price indices for most products. A strong result strengthens the US dollar, and conversely, a weak report weakens the dollar. A slight increase in indicators is unlikely to accelerate the growth of the dollar. The data is worse than the values of the previous period (0%, -0.4% in January 2024, +0.8%, +0.4%, +0.2%, +0.6%, +0.1%, + 1.0%, +0.6%, +0.2%, +0.7%, -0.3%, +0.5%, +2.3%, -0.3%, -0, 5%, +0.4%, +0.5%, +0.4%, +1.1% in the previous months of 2022) could negatively affect the dollar in the short term.
Tuesday, April 16
02:00 CNY China GDP for the 4th quarter. Industrial production. Retail sales index
China’s National Bureau of Statistics will report GDP growth data in the 1st quarter of 2024.
Chinese GDP is expected to grow again in 1Q 2024 after +1.0% (+5.2% in annual terms) in 4Q 2023, +1.3% (+4.9% in annual terms) in the 3rd quarter of 2023, +0.8% (+6.3% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter of 2023, +2.2% (+4.5% in annual terms) in 1st quarter, 0% (+2.9% in annual terms) in 4th quarter 2022, +3.9% (+3.9% in annual terms) in 3rd quarter, -2.6% ( +0.4% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter, +1.3% (+4.8% in annual terms) in the 1st quarter of 2022, +1.6% (+4.0% in in annual terms) in the 4th quarter, by +0.2% (+4.9% in annual terms) in the 3rd quarter, +1.3% (+7.9% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter and +0.6% (+18.3% in annual terms) in the 1st quarter of 2021.
China is the largest buyer of raw materials and a supplier of a wide range of finished products to the global commodity market. China’s economy is the second largest in the world after America’s. Therefore, the publication of important macroeconomic indicators from China can have a strong impact on the entire financial market.
At the same time, China is the largest trade and economic partner of Australia and New Zealand and a buyer of raw materials from these countries.
Therefore, positive macro statistics from China may also have a positive impact on the quotes of these commodity currencies. If the expected data indicates a slowdown in one of the world’s largest economies, this will be a negative factor for global stock markets and commodity currencies.
The China National Bureau of Statistics Industrial Production Data Report shows the output of Chinese industrial enterprises such as factories and production facilities. The growth of the indicator (industrial production) is a positive factor for the yuan, also indirectly signaling the possibility of accelerating inflation rates, which could put pressure on the People’s Bank of China to tighten monetary policy.
Conversely, a decrease in the indicator could have a negative impact on the yuan.
Previous values (annualized): +7.0%, +6.8%, +6.6%, +4.5%, +3.7%, +4.4%, +3.5%, +5.6%, +3.9%, +2.4% (in February 2023).
The Retail Sales Index is published monthly by the National Bureau of Statistics of China and measures total retail sales and cash receipts. The index is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and economic wellbeing and reflects the health of the retail sector in the near term. A rise in the index is usually a positive for the CNY; a decrease in the indicator will have a negative impact on the CNY. Previous index value (annualized): +5.5%, +7.4%, +10.1%, +4.6%, +2.5%, +3.1%, +12.7% , +18.4%, +10.6%, +3.5%, -1.8%, -5.9% (after an increase of +8% in the last months of 2019 and a fall of -20.5% in February 2020).
Data indicate a continued recovery in this sector of the Chinese economy after a strong decline in February–March 2020. If the data turns out to be weaker than the forecast or previous values, then the CNY may weaken.
06:00 GBP Report on the average wages of British over the last 3 months. Unemployment rate
Every month, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes a report on average wages covering the period for the last 3 months, with and without bonuses.
This report is a key short-term indicator of the dynamics of changes in the level of wages of employees in the UK. Wages growth is a positive factor for the GBP, while a low indicator is negative. Forecast: The April report suggests that average wages with bonuses rose again in the last 3 months calculated (December-February), after rising +5.6%, +5.8%, +6.5%, +7 ,2%, +7.9%, +8.1%, +8.5%, +8.2%, +6.9%, +6.5%, +5.8%, +5.9 %, +6.0%, +6.5%, +6.%, +6.1%, +5.5%, +5.2%, +6.4%, +6.8%, + 7.0%, +5.6%, +4.8%, +4.3%, +4.2% in previous periods); wages without bonuses also increased after the growth of +6.1%, +6.2%, +6.6%, +7.3%, +7.7%, +7.8%, +7.8%, + 7.8%, +7.3%, +7.2%, +6.7%, +6.6%, +6.6%, +6.7%, +6.5%, +6, 1%, +5.8%, +5.5%, +5.2%, +4.7%, +4.4%, +4.2%, +4.2%, +4.1% , +3.8%, +3.7%, +3.8% in previous periods). Thus, the data indicates continued growth in wages, which is positive for the pound. If the data turns out to be better than the forecast and/or previous values, the pound is likely to strengthen in the foreign exchange market. Data worse than forecast/previous values will have a negative impact on the pound.
Also at this time, unemployment data in the UK is published. It is expected that for 3 months (December-February) unemployment was at 3.9% (against 3.8%, 4.2%, 4.2%, 4.2%, 4.2%, 4.3% , 4.2%, 4.0%, 3.8%, 3.9%, 3.8%, 3.7%, 3.7%, 3.7%, 3.7%, 3.6% , 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.8%, 3.8%, 3.8%, 3.7%, 3.8%, 3.9%, 4.1%, 4.2% , 4.3%, 4.5%, 4.6%, 4.7%, 4.8%, 4.7%, 4.8%, 4.9%, 5.0%, 5.1% , 5.0% in previous periods).
Since 2012, the UK unemployment rate has fallen steadily (from 8.0% in September 2012). This is a positive factor for the pound; rising unemployment is a negative factor.
If data from the UK labor market turns out to be worse than the forecast and/or the previous value, then the pound will be under pressure.
In any case, at the time of publication of data from the British labor market, volatility is expected to increase in the pound quotes and on the London Stock Exchange.
12:30 CAD Consumer price indices in Canada
Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of retail prices of the corresponding basket of goods and services, and the core indicator (Core CPI) does not take into account fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transport, and tobacco products. The inflation target for the Bank of Canada is in the range of 1% – 3%. An increase in the CPI indicator is a harbinger of a rate increase and a positive factor for the CAD.
Previous values:
- Consumer Price Index: +0.3% (+2.8% in annual terms), 0% (+2.9% in annual terms), -0.3% (+3.4% in annual terms), + 0.1% (+3.1% in annual terms), +0.1% (+3.1% in annual terms), -0.1% (+3.8% in annual terms), +0, 4% (+4.0% in annual terms), +0.6% (+3.3% in annual terms), +0.1% (+2.8% in annual terms),
- Core Consumer Price Index (from the Bank of Canada): 0.1% (+2.1% in annual terms), +0.1% (+2.4% in annual terms), -0.5% (+2. 6% in annual terms), +0.1% (+2.8% in annual terms), +0.3% (+2.7% in annual terms), -0.1% (+2.8% in annual terms), +0.1% (+3.3% in annual terms), +0.5% (+3.2% in annual terms), -0.1% (+3.2% in annual terms terms).
If the expected data turns out to be worse than previous values, this will negatively affect the CAD. Data better than previous values will strengthen the Canadian dollar.
17:00 GBP Speech by head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey
During speeches by the head of the Bank of England, volatility usually rises sharply in the pound and the London FTSE index if he gives any hints about tightening or easing the monetary policy of the Bank of England. Tough tone of his comments will have a positive impact on the pound. If Bailey does not touch on monetary policy issues, the reaction to his speech will be weak.
22:45 NZD CPI (Consumer Price Index) for the 1st quarter of 2024
Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key indicator for assessing inflation and reflects the dynamics of retail prices for a group of goods and services included in the consumer basket. A positive result strengthens the NZD, a negative result weakens it.
Previous CPI values: +0.5% (+4.7% yoy) in the 4th quarter of 2023, +1.8% (+5.6% yoy) in the 3rd quarter of 2023, +1.1% (+6.0% yoy) in the 2nd quarter of 2023; and in annual terms: +6.7% in the 1st quarter of 2023, +7.2% in the 4th and 3rd quarters of 2022, +7.3% in the 2nd quarter, +6.9 % in the 1st quarter of 2022, +5.9% in the 4th quarter of 2021, +4.9% in the 3rd quarter of 2021, +3.3% in the 2nd quarter of 2021, +1.5% in the 1st quarter of 2021.
A relative decrease in the indicator and a value below the forecast could negatively affect the NZD quotes.
Wednesday, April 17
06:00 GBP Consumer Price Index. Core Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of retail prices for a group of goods and services included in the British consumer basket. The CPI index is a key indicator of inflation. Its publication causes active movement of the pound in the foreign exchange market, as well as the London Stock Exchange FTSE100 index.
In the previous reporting month (February), consumer inflation increased by +0.6% (+3.4% in annual terms) after -0.6% (+4.0% in annual terms) in January 2024, +0.4% (+4.0% in annual terms) in December. The data suggests that inflationary pressures still remain in the UK, which is likely to support the pound, especially if the data turns out to be higher than expected.
An indicator value below the forecast/previous value could trigger a weakening of the pound, as low inflation will force the Bank of England to maintain a loose monetary policy.
Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) is published by the Office for National Statistics and measures changes in the prices of a selected basket of goods and services (excluding food and energy) over a given period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A positive result strengthens the GBP, a negative result weakens it.
In February, the growth rate of Core CPI also slowed down, amounting to +4.5% (in annual terms) after +5.1% in January, December and November, after an increase of +5.7% +6.1%, +6.2% 3 months earlier. It is likely that the publication of the indicator will have a short-term positive impact on the pound if its value is higher than the forecast and previous values. An indicator value below the forecast and/or previous values may trigger a weakening of the pound.
16:00 GBP Speech by head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey
Financial market participants are waiting for Andrew Bailey to clarify the situation regarding the future policy of the UK central bank. Volatility during a speech by the head of the Bank of England usually rises sharply in the pound and the London FTSE index if he gives any hints about tightening or easing the monetary policy of the Bank of England. It is likely that Andrew Bailey will also provide explanations regarding the Bank of England’s decision on the interest rate and will touch upon the state and prospects of the British economy after Brexit against the backdrop of a sharp rise in energy prices and inflation. If Bailey does not touch on monetary policy issues, the reaction to his speech will be weak.
Thursday, April 18
01:30 AUD Employment level. Unemployment rate
The employment rate reflects the monthly change in the number of employed Australians. The growth of the indicator has a positive impact on consumer spending, which stimulates economic growth. A high value of the indicator is a positive factor for AUD, and a low value is a negative factor. Previous values of the indicator: +116500 in January, +500 in February, -65100 in January 2024, +61500 in December 2023, +55000 in October, +6700 in September, +64900 in August, -14600 in July, +32600 in June, +75900 in May, -4300 in April, +53000 in March, +64600 in February, -11500 in January, +14600 in December, +64000 in November, +32200 in October, +900 in September, +33500 in August, -40900 in July, +88400 in June, +60600 in May, +4000 in April, +17900 in March, +77400 in February, +12900 in January 2022.
Also at the same time, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish a report on the unemployment rate – an indicator that assesses the ratio of the unemployed population to the total number of working-age citizens. An increase in the indicator indicates a weak labor market, which leads to a weakening of the national economy. A decrease in the indicator is a positive factor for the AUD.
Forecast: unemployment in Australia in March remained at a minimum level of 3.7% (against 3.7% in February, 4.1% in January, 3.9% in December and November, 3.8% in October, 3 .6% in September, 3.7% in August and July, 3.5% in June, 3.6% in May, 3.7% in April, 3.5% in March and February, 3.7% in January, 3.5% in December, 3.4% in November and October, 3.5% in September and August, 3.4% in July, 3.5% in June, 3.9% in May and April, 4.0% in March and February, 4.2% in January), and employment increased.
The RBA leaders have previously repeatedly stated that in addition to the situation in international trade, the Australian economy and the central bank’s monetary policy plans are influenced by the level of debt and household spending, the growth of workers’ wages, as well as the state of the country’s labor market. If the indicators turn out to be worse than forecast, the Australian dollar may decline significantly in the short term. Better-than-forecast data will strengthen the AUD in the short term.
Friday, April 19
06:00 GBP Retail sales
The Retail Sales economic indicator tracks the level of consumer demand and is the most important indicator influencing the market and quotes of the national currency. It is also an indirect indicator of inflation, thus being of interest both to the country’s central bank and to market participants.
The Retail Sales Report is produced by the UK Office for National Statistics. Changes in retail sales are generally considered an indicator of consumer spending. In general, a high indicator is a positive factor for the GBP, while a low value is a negative factor.
Previous index values: -0.4%, +0.7%, -2.4% (in January 2024), +1.3% (in December 2023), 0%, -1.1%, + 0.4%, -1.1%, +0.6%, +0.1%, +0.5%, -1.2%, +1.0%, +1.3 (in January 2023 ) and +0.1%, -2.5%, -1.0%, -1.3%, -3.1%, -1.6%, -2.3%, -3.4%, -3.9%, -3.5%, -5.2 (in January 2023) in annual terms.
Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode
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