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After an active week (18.03.2024 – 24.03.2024), the next one will not be as eventful and will probably give investors the opportunity to sum up the results of the month and the first quarter of 2024.
The dollar remains stable, while market participants continue to analyze the results of the Fed meeting that ended on March 20. Inflation in the United States, which again accelerated in February, has not yet given the dollar sellers an opportunity to begin large-scale sales, and Fed officials to begin winding down the loose monetary policy cycle.
However, next week (25.03.2024 – 31.03.2024) market participants will pay attention to the publication of important macro statistics from the US, Australia, Germany, the UK and Japan.
We also note that on Friday, March 29, banks and exchanges will be closed in Catholic countries due to Catholic Good Friday, and trading volumes will be lower than usual.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled events may be cancelled. Time is GMT
Monday, March 25
No important macro statistics scheduled to be released.
Tuesday, March 26
12:30 USD Durable goods orders. Capital goods orders (ex defense)
Durable goods are solid goods with an expected lifespan of more than 3 years, such as automobiles, computers, appliances, and aircraft. These products require significant investment to produce. Durable goods orders is a leading indicator that reflects changes in the total value of new orders received by manufacturers. Rising orders for these products indicate that manufacturers are increasing activity to fill these orders.
Capital goods are durable goods used to produce other goods and services. The current indicator does not take into account goods produced in the defense and aviation sectors of the American economy.
Positive data strengthens the dollar, while negative data has a negative impact on the dollar. Any deterioration in the indicator compared to previous values and/or forecast may also have negative consequences for the dollar quotes, while data better than the forecast will have a positive impact on it.
- Previous values of the durable goods orders indicator: -6.1%, +0.6%, +0.4%, -0.3% +0.4% +0.5%, +0.1% , +0.1%, +0.7%, -0.6%, +0.3%, +0.1%, +0.3% (in January 2023).
- Previous values of the capital goods orders ex defense indicator: +0.1%, +0.3%, +1.0%, -0.6%, +0.5%, +1.1%, – 0.4%, -0.4%, +0.4%, +0.7%, -0.6%, -0.2%, +0.9% (in January 2023).
14:00 USD Consumer confidence level
The Conference Board survey report of nearly 3,000 US households asks respondents to assess current and future economic conditions, as well as the overall economic situation in the United States. American consumers’ confidence in the country’s economic development and the stability of their economic situation is a key indicator of consumer spending, which plays an important role in overall economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence indicates economic growth, while a low level indicates stagnation.
Previous indicator values: 106.7, 114.8, 110.7, 102.0, 102.6, 103.0, 106.1, 117.0, 109.7, 102.3, 101.3, 104, 2.
An increase in the indicator will support the dollar, while a decrease in the value will weaken it.
Wednesday, March 27
00:30 AUD Consumer Price Index
Consumer Price Inflation Index (CPI) published by the RBA and the Australian Bureau of Statistics measures the dynamics of retail prices of goods and services in Australia. CPI is the most significant indicator of inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A high value of the indicator is a positive factor for the AUD, and a low value is a negative factor. Previous indicator values: +3.4%, +3.4%, +4.3%, +4.9%, +5.6%, +5.2%, +4.9%, +5.4%.
The Australian central bank’s CPI inflation target is in the range of 2% – 3%. As follows from the minutes of one of the latest RBA meetings, “a further increase in the interest rate” is possible to return inflation to the target level.
The RBA, like most of the world’s other major central banks, still faces the challenge of high inflation.
The expected positive value is likely to support the AUD. If the indicator comes out with a value worse than the forecast, this will negatively affect the AUD in the short term.
Thursday, March 28
00:30 AUDRetail Sales Index
Retail Sales Index is published monthly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and measures overall retail sales. The index is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and reflects the health of the retail sector in the near term. A rising index is usually a positive for the AUD; a decrease in the indicator will have a negative impact on the AUD. Previous index value (for January) was +1.1% (after -2.7%, +2.0%, -0.4%, +0.9%, +0.3%, +0.5%, -0.8%, +0.8%, 0%, +0.4%, +0.2%, +1.9%, -3.9%, +1.7%, +0.4% , +0.6%, +0.6%, +1.3%, +0.2% in previous months). If the data turns out to be weaker than the previous value, the AUD may sharply decline in the short term; but if it’s above the previous values, the AUD is likely to strengthen.
07:00 EUR Retail Sales
Retail sales are the main indicator of consumer spending in Germany showing changes in the volume of sales in the retail sector. A high result strengthens the euro, and vice versa, a low result weakens it.
Previous values: -0.4% (-1.4% in annual terms) in January 2024, -1.6% (-1.7% in annual terms), -2.5% (-2.4% in annual terms), +1.1% (-0.1% in annual terms), -0.8% (-4.3% in annual terms), -1.2% (-2.3% in annual terms), -0.8% (-2.2% in annual terms), -0.8% (-1.6% in annual terms), +0.4% (-2.1% in annual terms) , +0.8% (-4.3% in annual terms), -2.4% (-8.6% in annual terms), -1.3% (-7.1% in annual terms), – 0.3% (-3.8% in annual terms) in January 2023.
Data indicate a continued slowdown in this sector of the German economy. Data better than the forecast and/or the previous value will likely have a positive impact on the euro, but only in the short term.
07:00 GBP UK GDP Q4 (final estimate)
GDP is considered an indicator of the overall health of the British economy. The rising trend of the GDP indicator is considered positive for the GBP. The UK’s GDP was one of the highest in the world before 2016, when the Brexit referendum took place. After that its growth slowed down, and with the onset of the global coronavirus pandemic, the British GDP growth rate completely moved into negative territory.
Previous GDP values: -0.1% in Q3, +0.2% in Q2, +0.1% in Q1 2023, +0.1% in Q4 2022 year, -0.3% in the 3rd quarter, +0.2% in the 2nd quarter, +0.8% in the 1st quarter of 2022, +1.3% in the 4th quarter, +1.0% in Q3, +5.5% in Q2 after falling -1.6% in Q1 2021. The main factors that could force the Bank of England to keep rates low are weak GDP and labor market growth, as well as low consumer spending. If GDP data turns out to be worse than significantly previous values, this will put downward pressure on the pound. A strong GDP report will strengthen the pound.
The preliminary estimate was -0.3% (-0.2% annualized).
12:30 USD US Annual GDP in Q4 (final estimate)
GDP data is one of the key indicators (along with labor market and inflation data) for the Fed in terms of its monetary policy. The strong result strengthens the US dollar; a weak GDP report has a negative impact on the US dollar. In the previous 3rd quarter of 2023, GDP grew by +4.9%, after the growth of +2.1% in the 2nd quarter, +2.0%, +2.6%, +3.2% in 3 1st quarter of 2022, decline of -0.6% in the 2nd quarter, -1.6% in the 1st quarter, growth of +6.9% in the 4th quarter of 2021, +2.3% in the 3rd quarter, +6.7% in the 2nd quarter, +6.3% in the 1st quarter of 2021.
If data points to a contraction in GDP in the 4th quarter of 2023, the dollar will come under severe pressure. Positive GDP data will support the dollar and US stock indices. The preliminary estimate was +3.3%, and the second estimate was +3.2%.
14:00 USD University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (final release)
This indicator reflects the confidence of American consumers in the country’s economic development. A high level indicates economic growth, while a low level indicates stagnation. Previous indicator values: 76.9 in February, 79.0 in January 2024, 69.7 in December 2023, 61.3 in November, 63.8 in October, 68.1 in September, 69.5 in August, 71.6 in July, 64.4 in June, 59.2 in May, 63.5 in April, 62.0 in March, 67.0 in February, 64.9 in January 2023, 59.7 in December, 56.8 in November, 59.9 in October, 58.6 in September, 58.2 in August, 51.5 in July, 50.0 in June, 58.4 in May, 65.2 in April, 59, 4 in March, 62.8 in February, 67.2 in January 2022. An increase in the indicator will strengthen the USD, and a decrease in the value will weaken the dollar. Data indicate an uneven recovery of this indicator, which is negative for the USD. Data worse than previous values may have a negative impact on the dollar in the short term.
The preliminary score was: 76.5.
23:30 JPY Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Tokyo region. Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) in the Tokyo region (ex food and energy prices)
Tokyo Consumer Price Indices are published by the Japan Bureau of Statistics and measure changes in the prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. They are a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences.
Previous values (annualized):
- Tokyo CPI: +2.6%, +1.6%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +3.3%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.3%, + 3.4%, +4.4% (in January 2023),
- Tokyo CPI (excluding food and energy): +3.1%, +3.1%, +3.5%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +4.0%, +4 .0%, +4.0%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.8%, +3.4%, +3.1%, +3.0% (in January 2023 ).
An indicator value below the forecast and/or previous values may trigger a weakening of the yen.
Friday, March 29
In Catholic countries around the world, Christians celebrate Good Friday. Banks and exchanges will be closed, which will affect trading volumes – they will be lower than usual.
12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE Core Price Index)
Personal Consumption Expenditure data measures the average amount of money consumers spend per month on durable goods, consumer goods and services. Core PCE price index does not include food and energy prices. Annual Core PCE is the Fed’s main measure of inflation.
In turn, the inflation rate (in addition to data from the labor market and GDP) is important for the Fed when determining the parameters of its monetary policy. Rising prices put pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy and raise interest rates.
PCE data above the forecast and/or previous values could push the US dollar higher, while a decrease in the indicator would most likely have a negative impact on the dollar.
Previous values (annualized): +2.8%, +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.7%, +3.8%, +4.3%, +4.3% +4.7%, +4.8%, +4.8%, +4.7%, +4.7%, +4.6%, +4.8%, +5, 1%, +5.2%, +4.9%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +4.7%, +4.9%, +5.2%, +5.3% , +5.2% (in January 2022).
Price chart of GBPUSD in real time mode
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