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The first two weeks of Ether selling are over, and we have received so far More than 25,000 Bitcoin From selling over 50 million ETH. This represents the largest crypto token sale to date, and with the two stops places ETH as the token 8 highest total valueeven beating the beloved Dogecoin in 15.5 m. A total of 6,670 transactions have been made, with values ranging from a minimum of 0.01 BTC to a maximum of 500 BTC, and purchases continue every hour. Additionally, selling ether represents the largest use of multisig to date; Because we sold, Percentage of all BTC stored in multisig The percentage has increased from 0.23% to 0.41% in the last two weeks alone – in other words, 3 of the 4 private keys split between our different sites control 45% of the total BTC stored in existing multi-signature addresses.
The purpose of this post will be to provide an overview of some of the sale statistics to date. The data was taken yesterday, when we had 24,000 BTC, and assumes that all purchases were worth 2,000 ETH/BTC (which is a completely incorrect assumption, but the error term is small enough that it can be safely deducted). First we have This spreadsheetwhich shows ether purchases over time.
Individual nails for each block. The graph shows that the distribution is broadly divided into two groups, one group closer to the start of the sale and the other near the end of the full discount period. Buys drop sharply once the new price level of 1970 ETH/BTC (now 1910 ETH/BTC) kicks in. In theory, buying near the end of the full discount period is the most optimal strategy from a naive game theoretic model; If you buy near the end of the full discount period, you’ll get the same price as people who bought at the beginning, but you’ll also benefit from getting more information — i.e. a better idea of the exact percentage of all the ETH you’ll have purchased. Thus, the fact that the majority of purchases eventually occurred shows that Ether buyers are generally a fairly sophisticated audience – which I assume you must be if you can be convinced to trade your hard-earned Bitcoin for some crypto token backed by the concept of “ Generalized Consensus Computing.
Of course, it’s important to note that there are reasons to buy initially as well. Some people participate in the selling process out of a desire to support the project, and some large buyers may have this desire Priming effect Keeping in mind, putting larger amounts of money (such as bills) in the tip jar initially increases the total amount received because it creates the impression that the recipient is important and deserving of larger and larger contributions.
At this point, we can expect to see a lower flow that will stabilize over the next few days, and then a final, smaller rise on day 42. The chart below shows the cumulative Ether selling up to this point:
https://docs.google.com/a/ethereum.org/spreadsheets/d/1H5w9YVp1eRoNP8N9UFFvCcz51Q5DxzJaOVliCAAT46g/gviz/chartiframe?oid=831527247
Another interesting thing to analyze is the distribution of purchases. This spreadsheet It contains a list of purchases arranged by purchase size. The largest individual purchase was 500 BTC (1 million ETH), followed by purchases worth 466 BTC (933,580 ETH) and 330 BTC (660,360 ETH). We have not received any requests Largepurchases@ethereum.org. If we sort the purchases by volume, we get the following two graphs, one for the quantity of purchases and one for the amount of ETH purchased, by purchase volume:
https://docs.google.com/a/ethereum.org/spreadsheets/d/1GS9pzSdMx9lK0XGSKEDr_aoi02riq3MPRyvEntVUm68/gviz/chartiframe?oid=168457404
https://docs.google.com/a/ethereum.org/spreadsheets/d/1GS9pzSdMx9lK0XGSKEDr_aoi02riq3MPRyvEntVUm68/gviz/chartiframe?oid=846945325
Note that this only applies to purchases. There is also another segment of ether that will be distributed soon, which is the endowment. The parts in which the endowment is scheduled to be distributed Spreadsheet; The largest is equal to 0.922% of the total ether purchased (i.e. 0.369% of the total supply after five years) and the smallest is 0.004%, with a total of 81 people getting a share. If you are a recipient, you will be contacted shortly; If not, there is still a second bracket whose distribution has not been determined.
Distribution and Gini indices
As a final set of interesting statistics, we calculated three Gini indices:
- Gini index for ether buyers: 0.832207
- Stop Gini Index: 0.599638
- Gini index for the whole group: 0.836251
The Gini index is a common measure of inequality; The way the Gini index is calculated is by drawing a chart, with both axes going from 0% to 100%, and drawing a line in which the Y coordinate at a given X coordinate is calculated as the portion of total income (or wealth) that is owned by the lowest percentage of cent of the population. The area between this curve and the diagonal line, as a fraction of the area of the entire triangle below the diagonal line, is the Gini index:
In an ideal society with complete equality, the coefficient would be zero; Obviously the bottom X% of the population has X% of wealth, just like any other In the opposite scenario, an absolute dictatorship where one person controls everything, the bottom X% would have nothing at all until the last person, who would have it all; Therefore, the area between this curve and the diagonal line will be equal to the entire area under the diagonal line, and the coefficient will be exactly the same. Most real-world scenarios fall between the two.
Note that Gini coefficients for wealth and Gini coefficients for income are two different things; One measures how much people have and the other measures the rate at which people receive it. because Savings are super-linear to income, wealth coefficients tend to be higher; The Gini coefficient of wealth in the United States, for example, It is 0.801The world coefficient is 0.804. Given that Gini coefficients in the real world measure inequality in access to resources, and that Gini coefficients in the distribution of cryptocurrencies arise from inequality of resources and inequality of utility (some people care about Ethereum a little, some care about it a lot), then 0.836 is a result Very good – Bitcoin’s Gini coefficient, by comparison Measured at 0.877. The top 100 current holders of ETH are responsible for 45.7% of total ETH, which is less than the top 100 holders. Of the prevailing alternative currenciesThis statistic ranges between 55% and 70%.
Of course, these last two comparisons are misleading – the Ethereum ecosystem has not even really begun to function, and services like exchanges that centralize control of units of the currency in a few wallets without centralizing legal ownership end up inflating both the Gini and the Gini Index. Top 100 results for existing cryptocurrency networks. Once Ethereum is launched, it may be impossible to accurately estimate the Gini Index, as large amounts of Ether will be stored within arbitrarily running, Turing-complete, decentralized applications. In many cases mathematically ambiguous,rules for how to withdraw ether.
The sale still has 28 days to go; Although we don’t expect much from this remaining period, anything is possible. With the regulatory issues finalized, the organization is preparing to significantly expand development, putting us on the fast track to completing the Ethereum code and launching the genesis block; ETA winter 2014-2015.
