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While Washington, Tokyo offers a comfort on customs duties, is attributed USDJPY The declining direction of the couple of the power of the Japanese economy and the raising of the BOJ rate overnight, and the enhancement of other factors. The Japanese currency is a very reliable safe haven. Let’s discuss this topic and develop a trading plan.
The article covers the following topics:
Main meals
- Investors prefer the yen as a safe currency.
- The speculators actively buy the Japanese currency.
- The futures market market is not sure the BOJ rate is high.
- Short deals can be opened on a USDJPY pair with 140 and 135 goals.
Weekly basic expectations for yen
US Treasury Secretary Scott Payet confirms that the strong Japanese economy, high inflation, and raising the average bank rate is a pivotal order for the yen. However, the futures market, due to uncertainty in American commercial policy, has reduced the possibility of at least one restriction of cash restriction in BOJ in 2025 from full confidence to 48 %. However, these expectations did not hinder USDJPY Bears.
Despite the postponement of a 24 % tariff against Japan, the global duty of 10 % and 25 % tax on car imports, which was a source of concern in Tokyo, is still in place. This is likely to cool Japan’s economy and makes the Bank of Japan more cautious. It is worth noting that asset managers have increased long net situations on the yen to a record level, as hedge boxes pushed them to their highest levels since early 2021. The current economic climate represents a multi -faceted challenge, and it remains to see how these factors will play.
Speculation situations on the Japanese yen
Source: Bloomberg.
The strengthening of the Japanese currency is rooted in fears that the protective policies of the White House will hinder the growth of global GDP and may lead to stagnation in the American economy. In such an environment, assets that are safe investments, such as yen, Swiss franc, and gold, are to witness an increase in demand. The US dollar often performs well at such times, but not in the current issue. The inability to predict the Trump administration led to a decrease in the US perception as a reliable investment destination. The current market is characterized by a significant sale in American stocks and bonds, which leads to a decrease in confidence in Greenback.
This is evident in the increasing demand for hedging the US dollar index purchases; Greenback against the yen’s reflection risk continues to decline, indicating more attention USDJPY Put the options of purchase options. As a result, the currency pair gradually decreases.
Usdjpy performance and risk repercussions
Source: Bloomberg.
The duration of this trend has not yet been seen. the USDJPY The direction of the spouses has not been completely exhausted. If the customs tariff continues to threaten the global economy, it will continue to fuel the demand for safe assets; On the contrary, the decline in US definitions caused by proposals from other countries will allow the yen to reinforce thanks to the increasing opportunities to resume the cash tightening cycle in the Bank of Japan.
As a result, the sale of USDJPY can be a profitable strategy. If the euro faces world economic contraction challenges, the yen is likely to perform well. The enhancement of the yen will lead to low import prices, which is useful for the Japanese economy, especially given its dependence on commodity imports. In addition, exports require support, and the official Tokyo government is committed to providing them.
Weekly
Against this background, Short deals on USDJPY The pair that was formed in 150.6 and 144.8 can be kept open for a long time with goals at 140 and 135.
This expectation depends on an analysis Basic factorsIncluding official data from financial institutions and organizers, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data is also.
Usdjpy price scheme in actual time
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