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- The US dollar holds a constant with the continued focus on global trade negotiations.
- PBOC continues golden purchases, indicating a long -term benefit.
- Chinese copper production expands, which reduces dependence on imports.
The Australian dollar (AUD) remains under pressure with the uncertainty in global trade, especially surrounding the commercial talks of the United States and China. While there is a slight recovery in copper production from China, commercial deals and economic policies still affect the morale in the market, with limited positive movements of the Psychological.
Daily market driver Digest: Aussie fixed before commercial conversations
- The US dollar (USD) holds a constant as the market interacts with uncertainty in the main deal and data.
- Copper production in China continues to expand, which may reduce future copper imports.
- Golden purchases are slowed by the Popular Bank of China (PBOC), although the purchases are still strong.
- The US dollar index (DXY) remains near 100.30, indicating the signs of resistance despite the addresses of commercial deals.
- Trade talks between the United States and China are to be held at the weekend, which raises hopes but also cautious expectations.
- Although a positive reaction to the market to the potential commercial deal of the United States of America, the tariff is still 10 % in the UK valid.
- Raw oil imports have increased in China, indicating continued demand despite the universal uncertainty.
- The largest copper producer in Chile raised its production, which reduced fears of a global deficiency.
- The purchases of gold from PBOC increased by 70,000 ounces, and continued their long -term strategy.
- US federal reserve officials are still cautious, without any immediate discounts of expected interest rates despite global trade tensions.
- Chinese economic expectations are highly weighing on commodity -related currencies, including the Australian dollar.
- While China expands its local copper production, it still faces challenges from the ongoing global show issues.
- Tightening oil markets, with concerns about future import volumes, especially from Iran.
Technical analysis
The Australian dollar is currently trading about 0.6400, an increase of 0.30 % a day. The RSI indicate at 54.85 indicates a neutral momentum, while the difference of moving average rapprochement (MACD) indicates a sale signal. Short -term moving averages, including a 20 -day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6401, indicate. ExpectationsWith the support of SMA for 100 days at 0.6289 and the SIA moving average for 10 days (EMA) at 0.6419. However, SMA for 200 days at 0.6460 indicates a declining direction. The main support levels are at 0.6419, 0.6413, and 0.6401, with resistance at 0.6425, 0.6431, and 0.6460.
Questions and answers in Australian dollars
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a resource -rich country, the other main engine is the largest export price, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, the largest commercial partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, the rate of growth and commercial balance. Market morale-whether investors are eating more risky assets (risk) or searching for safe materials (risk)-is also a worker, with positive risks for AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) affects the Australian dollar (AUD) by determining the level of interest rates that Australian banks can persuade each other. This affects the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3 % by setting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates are supported compared to other main central banks, and relatively low vice versa. RBA can also use and tighten quantitative dilution to influence credit conditions, with previous AUD negative and positive to AUD.
China is the largest commercial partner in Australia, so the health of the Chinese economy is a major impact on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy does a good job, it buys more raw materials, commodities and services from Australia, raising the demand for AUD, and raising its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy does not grow at the speed available. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, they often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its wives.
Iron Ore is the largest export in Australia, as it represents 118 billion dollars annually according to data from 2021, with China as its main destination. Therefore, the price of iron ore can be an engine for the Australian dollar. In general, if the price of iron ore rises, the AUD also rises, as the total demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of iron ore decreases. Iron ore prices also tend to increase the possibility of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country gains from its exports in exchange for what it pays to its imports is another factor that can affect the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces very required after exports, its currency will obtain a value of the excess demand created from foreign buyers who seek to buy its exports in exchange for what it spends to buy imports. Therefore, the positive net trade balance enhances AUD, with the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.
