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If it feels quiet, that’s because the Fed is in the blackout window ahead of the March 20 FOMC decision. That’s shaping up to be an important one, not because of a potential rate move, but because the new dot plot could show less than 75 basis points in easing.
Until then, we will have to pick through the economic data. Today’s CPI report added some volatility but surprisingly little follow-through. That will leave the market searching for a theme. Today that theme is ‘buy AI and megacap tech’ and that’s a tough trend to argue against.
Tomorrow we will get UK GDP but for the US, it’s a barren landscape. The only market movers will be the a 30-year bond auction and the weekly oil inventories report but I’d be surprised if those are notable events in FX.
