The market is pricing in a Republican sweep

CNBC reported earlier today that Biden is not only planning to withdraw, but is still committed to holding a second debate in September, citing his adviser. Other reports say there is no pressure from his cabinet to resign.

To be clear, the decision is his alone, and for him to have a viable nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris would also need to withdraw. This does not appear to be happening, and the market is betting that it will lead to a strong Republican sweep of the House, Senate, and White House.

Previously, there were many scenarios in which Trump could win but lose the House or win it by only a small majority of seats, and similarly, he could only get one or two more votes in the Senate.

Alternatively, if Biden and the Democrats were eliminated, that would leave Republicans unopposed, and that would pave the way for strong corporate and deficit tax cuts and regulatory changes. Now that might also lead to some real trade uncertainty, but if you look at the broad Republican agenda, it does certainly Pro stock market and I’m not sure you want to price anything else, at least at this point. However, if you do, here it is 7 Concrete Business Ideas From Jim Cramer If Trump Wins.

To be fair, there are several cross-currents here including good inflation numbers in both the PCE report and UMich’s inflation forecast. There is also the usual uncertainty at the end of the month and a positive July season.

But I take it seriously, as the S&P 500 rose above 5,500 for the first time.