The unemployment rate will not exceed 5%.

Federal Reserve Philadelphia Federal Reserve Governor Patrick Harker signaled that the bank’s moves on interest rates need to be “methodical,” noting that policymakers are targeting a series of cuts through the rest of 2024 as the U.S. central bank prepares for a dovish shift.

Key points

We need to start lowering prices.

The Fed should start the rate cuts, and keep moving.

I don’t see much risk of employment deteriorating. In our view, the unemployment rate will not peak above 5%.

Contacts urge the Fed not to stop cutting rates and start cutting them.

The neutral rate is about 3%.