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the Euusud The husband did not decrease in response to the threats of customs tariffs despite the expected negative impact on the European Union’s economy. The United States is in an unstable position. The position of the US dollar is likely to deteriorate regardless of Washington’s actions. Let’s discuss this topic and develop a trading plan.
The article covers the following topics:
Main meals
- The euro track depends on the American definitions.
- The American economy is still cooling.
- Financial stimulation or unification in US dollars will not help.
- Traders may think of the shift in the short term to purchase.
The basic expectations of the US dollar
As the American “Liberation Day” approaches, the market expects great developments. On April 2, Donald Trump will announce the definitions that are expected to calm or calm the markets. The average tariff risk recognition of jumping from the current 2.2 % to its highest level since the 1930s. It is worth noting that imports are currently 14 % of the US GDP, three times the rate seen in the 1930s. The goal of these definitions is to reduce the trade deficit, but will this strategy contribute to the return of the American economy? Modern data indicates that this will not be, as it is clear from Euusud The possibilities of the bullish husband.
The United States is imported as a share of GDP
Source: Bloomberg.
The American Manufacturing report for March is undoubtedly one of the most disappointing and stagnation estimates for years. The report indicates that commercial activity has returned to less than 50 years. The report used “weak” terms 7 times, “slow” 21 times, and “tariffs” 18 times. The economy faces the large winds, and the head of the Richmond team at the Federal Reserve, Thomas Parkin, has expressed his concerns that the US duties on imports may stimulate inflation and unemployment. This can put the federal reserve in the position of having to make difficult choices.
While the accuracy of this evaluation is undeniable, financial markets expected a major trade conflict between the United States and the European Union, and expected its possibly negative impact on the economy of the eurozone. Brussels is not seen as a clear loser due to its trade surplus, but the slowdown in Global GDP will also pose challenges in the currency bloc directed towards export.
However, financial stimulation in Germany and the European Union focus on defense will compensate for the harmful effects of definitions. On the contrary, the United States lacks financial resources to bear the trade war. The Trump administration’s proposal to expand tax cuts cost $ 4.5 trillion, by $ 2 trillion of budget discounts and $ 2.5 trillion in import duties, and these two people are somewhat questionable.
The United States will have to borrow, and borrowing from the former allies will be very risky in the face of raging commercial wars. This approach is likely to increase interest rates and disintegrate GDP growth. However, reducing financial stimulation will also slow down the economy. Washington in the state of Zugzwang, where every subsequent step has exacerbated the current situation.
EURUSD performance and risk repercussions
Source: Bloomberg.
As expected, the derivative market expects Euusud A gathering to continue, as evidenced by risk repercussions.
Erusud weekly trading plan
The main reaction of the currency pair depends on the “Liberation Day” in America on whether Donald Trump’s tariff will shock or calm financial markets. However, the Euusud The husband maintains the upward trend. As a result, traders may close their short -term locations in the short term at 1.078 and open long positions on a recovery of support levels of 1.0725 and 1.069. Instead, if the quotes rise above the resistance level 1.0845, one can open more Long situationsAdd it to those that started within 1.0735-1.0755.
This expectation depends on an analysis Basic factorsIncluding official data from financial institutions and organizers, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data is also.
Eurusd price scheme in the actual time
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