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According to UBS’s biweekly update on CTAs’ positioning and flows, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) have increased their equity exposure to an all-time high, reaching the 96th percentile.
UBS explains that over the past two weeks, CTAs have significantly bought US equities and the Nifty 50, leading to this peak in exposure.
With equity positions now at elevated levels, UBS suggests that June could see a shift towards risk reduction. They anticipate approximately $20 to $25 billion in profit-taking, particularly targeting the Dow Jones and Mexbol indices, which appear most vulnerable to CTAs’ selling pressure.
In contrast, CTAs have shown limited activity in the bond market in May. Despite being “significantly skewed” towards buying, they remain short. UBS notes that a 20 basis points rally could trigger significant unwinding, with potential buying ranging from $70 million to $130 million.
In the foreign exchange market, UBS says CTAs have significantly reduced their US Dollar long positions, cutting about 60% since the last update. This shift included purchasing $70 to $80 billion in G10 currencies and $20 to $25 billion in emerging market currencies, with further reductions expected to neutralize their aggregate USD stance.
In commodities, UBS’s research reveals that CTAs have reduced bullish bets in energy, leaving them slightly long while maintaining strong long positions in metals and moderately short positions in agricultural commodities. In the coming weeks, UBS expects stabilization in energy positions and ongoing risk reduction in other commodity sectors.
With CTAs’ equity exposure at historical highs, the potential for profit-taking prompts UBS to question whether investors should consider locking in some gains.
