US dollar dips in thin trade after PCE data

I would be careful taking any signals from today’s FX market moves but the US dollar dip after the PCE report is probably the right one.

The key number from the report was the month-over-month core PCE reading. On the surface it matched the +0.3% m/m reading but unrounded it was at +0.261%, making it much close to +0.2% than +0.4%. I’d caution though that the prior number was revised up to +0.5% m/m from +0.4% so perhaps that balances it out.

On net, the year-over-year reading at +2.5% (as expected) captures core inflation.

The US dollar fell 15-20 pips across the board on the data. Whether that’s due to the lower unrounded number, a sigh of relief inflation wasn’t higher or randomness in a holiday market is a fair debate.

In particular, USD/JPY fell. That could reflect fears of intervention from the Japanese ministry of finance, which has been issuing stern warnings after the recent round of yen weakness.

It’s a holiday and appears to be quiet in markets but the day certainly isn’t done. We get speeches from the Fed’s Daly at 11:15 am ET and Fed Chair Powell at 11:30 am ET via a moderated discussion at the San Francisco Fed.