US Dollar Slips after Core PCE meets Expectations, USD still needs a Driver

US Dollar Index Price and Analysis

• Core PCE at 2.8% in line with market forecasts.
• Dollar Index finding support from the 200-day simple moving average.

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The US Dollar Index slipped a fraction lower earlier after US PCE data met market expectations. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation was seen at 2.8% in January, down from 2.9% in December. On a month-on-month basis, Core PCE rose by 0.4% in January compared to a prior month’s 0.2%. Initial jobless also hit the screens at the same time with continuing jobless claims higher than the previous week and market forecasts.

The US dollar slipped a fraction post-release but the move was limited and within today’s tight range. The US Dollar Index has arrested its recent slide lower and is currently being propped up by the longer-dated, 200-day simple moving average, currently at 103.75. Below here is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the mid-July/early-October rally at 103.41. If these levels are broken convincingly, 103.00 hooves into view.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart

Charts via TradingView

What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.