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I was in Toronto on Monday to talk to Bnnbloomgg about playing the tariff news on Wednesday. I am dealing with what is priced and how to respond to the initial titles, which are now expected at 4 pm on Wednesday, but can leak sooner.
I argued that we are in the utmost fear about what would happen, but there are positive signs below the surface. Since then, we have seen a great bounce in the origins of the risk, so that this call began at least a good start.
More importantly, I am talking about the reason for the US dollar struggle despite the usual “risk”. It is a new model in the market and may continue.
Finally, I am talking about the location of the hiding if Trump does not ask for definitions and takes an aggressive line instead.
Some notes:
- I think we are in “Peak Trade Fears” now
- Carney Trump’s call was positive, among other positive indicators
- Most of the market participants on the margin are cautious
- Both “Federal Reserve” and “Trump’s situation” may have died for wider markets, and it is a total opposite since the beginning of the year
- However, the US dollar is widespread as there is a fear that Trump will not help him and cannot help the Federal Reserve
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