No big surprises in the forecast for the upcoming meetings of major central banks.
Markets are pricing in a 66% chance of a BoJ rate hike, but with them also set to announce a tapering of bond purchases at the meeting, they may hold off on raising rates for now. I don’t think the bank has anything to offer but dovishness, but time will tell.
Only two cuts are expected (but very close to 50/50), one to the Swiss National Bank and one to the Bank of England, but the probability of this cut is only 50% meaning it is a bit of a coin flip at the moment.
The rest of the central banks are expected to keep rates unchanged, but the odds are only high on this front for the Fed and the RBNZ, while the others are close to 60% or slightly above, meaning incoming data could influence either direction.
Interest rate forecasts for upcoming meetings



















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