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Here is a great chart today from Jim Bianco who illustrates what will happen to year-over-year core PCE if it runs at 0.33% m/m, which is the two-year average.
It also highlights that a series of lower numbers will roll off, particularly in June, July and August.
The good news is that today’s PCE core number was +0.261%, which is already putting downward pressure on this projection.
It also shouldn’t be too big of a surprise that inflation will be high with 0.33% monthly inflation. That’s a pace that would imply 4% annual inflation.
Digging through the details of today’s inflation report, much of it is focused in health care. Could those be one-off increases? Or will they be persistent as they work their way through different providers?
Meanwhile, there has been some helpful disinflation in autos and food. But will that run out before the inflation in healthcare and auto repair does?
