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After Bitcoin surged to $64,000, crypto analyst Rekt Capital is predicting a major move in the coming weeks. In a new report, video In his analysis, the analyst expects a major market move around October 2024, based on historical precedents and current chart patterns.
Will October be a bullish month for Bitcoin again?
Looking at the weekly chart, Rekt Capital has identified a descending channel. Over the past four weeks, Bitcoin has been drifting below this channel, looking for support that would enable the price to expand above the channel bottom. This move has been met with a “stunning recovery,” suggesting a return to the channel top around $67,000 could be possible in the coming weeks.
“The bounce off the channel bottom is crucial because it has historically taken the price from the channel bottom to the channel top in about two weeks on average,” explained React Capital. He highlighted the importance of weekly candlesticks closing above specific levels, particularly $67,500 and eventually $71,500, which would mark a break of the high re-accumulation range established after the halving.
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“The steady bounce pattern from the channel bottom to the channel top typically lasts for two weeks on average, but in the current context, we see a potential long-term consolidation phase at these lows,” Rekt Capital explained. This observation suggests that while the bounce path follows Historical patternsConsolidation at lower prices may provide investors with buying opportunities at profitable prices.
Focusing on technical thresholds, Rekt Capital emphasized the importance of multiple weekly candlestick closes above pivotal price points. First, a close above $66,000 would reaffirm Re-accumulation rangeThe USD floor is acting as fresh support, paving the way for further upside action. More importantly, a decisive weekly close above $67,500 would signal a break of the ongoing lower-high trend that has dominated since March of this year.
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“A weekly close above these defined levels is not only a technical achievement but a psychological victory for market participants, indicating a weakening of sell-side pressures and a restoration of bullish momentum,” Rect Capital noted.
Historically, Bitcoin has tended to start big rallies about 150 to 160 days after the halving event. By drawing parallels from Post-half periods In 2016 and 2020, the analyst suggested that similar conditions are currently forming, with Bitcoin price around 133 days after the last halving.
“This cyclical observation fits well with current market dynamics, where Bitcoin is systematically testing, and in some cases breaking, important technical barriers,” he noted. This comparison is based not only on time patterns, but also on the qualitative nature of market behavior during these periods.
An important point of analysis was the 21-week exponential moving average, a key indicator often seen as a gauge of bullish markets. Rekt Capital highlighted its historical significance, noting that “deviations from the 21-week EMA in bull markets typically provide profitable buying opportunities, as is the case in the 2021 cycle. Bitcoin is currently hovering around this EMA, providing mixed signals that require careful interpretation.”
Looking ahead, the analyst expects that for Bitcoin to enter a new parabolic phase that will lead to price discovery and possibly a new all-time high, it must first consolidate above $71,500 — the top of the re-accumulation range. This level has previously acted as formidable resistance, and a weekly close above it would likely trigger a major bullish phase.
“In the coming weeks, the market’s ability to support these critical supports and confidently break through resistance levels will be crucial. This will determine the viability of a breakout in line with historical patterns observed post-halving,” Rekt Capital concluded, noting that October could be pivotal for Bitcoin’s trajectory.
At the time of publishing this report, BTC was trading at $63,956.
Featured image created using DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
