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- US Nonfarm Payrolls are seen rising by 200K in March after February’s 275K increase.
- The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the labor market report at 12:30 GMT.
- US employment data could impact the Fed rate cut expectations and the US Dollar dynamics.
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the high-impact Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The US labor market data is closely scrutinized by market participants for fresh insights on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) outlook on the interest rates, which could impact the US Dollar price action in the near term.
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What to expect in the next Nonfarm Payrolls report?
The Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to show that the US economy may have created 200,000 jobs last month, down from a 275,000 increase registered in February. January’s data was significantly revised down to show 229,000 jobs created instead of 353,000 as previously reported.
The Unemployment Rate is likely to hold steady at 3.9% in the same period. Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings, an important gauge of wage inflation, is set to rise 4.1% in the year through March, cooling off slightly from February’s 4.3% growth.
The headline NFP figure, along with the previous revisions and wage inflation data, will hold the key to affirm the market expectations of a Fed interest rate cut as early as June. The probability that the Fed will begin lowering rates in June stands at 62%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, up from the 58% shown at the start of the week on Monday.
The revival in the dovish Fed expectations could be attributed to the recent commentaries from the Fed policymakers and the weaker-than-expected US ISM Services PMI, as markets paid little heed to strong US JOLTs Job Openings and ADP Employment data.
Amidst the recent Fedspeak, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday reassured markets of the likelihood of interest rate cuts this year. Powell said that “if the economy evolves broadly as we expect,” he and his Fed colleagues largely agree that a lower policy interest rate will be appropriate “at some point this year.” Meanwhile, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said early Thursday that she expects the disinflation trend will continue, which will pave the way for the central bank to cut interest rates.
Meanwhile, the US private sector added 184,000 jobs in March, a decent increase from the upwardly revised 155,000 print in February, the ADP reported on Wednesday. The data beat the analysts’ estimates of a 148,000 job gain. US job openings rose by 8,000 to 8.756 million on the last day of February, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. The market forecast was for an 8.74 million reading.
Previewing the March jobs report, TD Securities (TDS) analysts said: “We look for job growth to have lost further momentum in March following the boomy Jan/Feb gains that came in the 200k-300k range. Household survey noise will keep the UE rate volatile, however, we expect it to stay unchanged at 3.9%.”
“We also look for wage growth to move back to the 0.3% m/m pace —and down 0.2pp to 4.1% y/y— after the ups and downs of the last couple of reports,” the TDS analysts added.
How will US March Nonfarm Payrolls affect EUR/USD?
Increased bets for Fed rate cuts keep the US Dollar undermined against its major counterparts, driving the EUR/USD pair to a weekly high near 1.0875. It remains to be seen if the pair can sustain its upswing in the lead-up to the US NFP showdown.
A strong-than-expected NFP headline figure above the 200,000 expected increase combined with hotter-than-expected wage inflation data could temper June Fed rate cut bets, providing the much-needed lift to the US Dollar while sending EUR/USD back toward 1.0750. Conversely, if the US employment data points to loosening labor market conditions and decelerating trends in pay growth, the Greenback could come under renewed selling pressure amid reinforcement of dovish Fed expectations. In such a case, EUR/USD could advance through the 1.0900 threshold.
Dhwani Mehta, Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:
“The EUR/USD pair has recaptured the critical 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0830 on a daily closing basis on Wednesday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) flirts with the 50 level, suggesting that buyers lean in favor of the pair in the near term”.
“Buyers need to take out the 100-day SMA at 1.0876 to extend the recovery toward the 1.0900 level. The next upside barrier for EUR/USD will be then seen at the March 21 high of 1.0943. Conversely, the initial demand area is seen at the 1.0800 round figure, below which the April 3 low at 1.0764 will be tested. The line in the sand for Euro buyers is envisioned at 1.0725, April lows”, Dhwani adds.
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months’ reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market’s reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
