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Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 2106.83 with a target of 2250.00 – 2350.50.
Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 2106.83 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 2024.78 – 1916.55.
Analysis: a descending correction appears to have formed as the fourth wave (4) of larger degree on the daily chart. The fifth wave (5) is unfolding, with the first wave 3 of (5) forming as its part. Apparently, the first wave of smaller degree i of 3 is forming on the H4 time frame, with a corrective wave (iv) of i completed as its part. Wave (v) of i presumably continues developing on the H1 time frame; as its part, wave iii of (v) formed and a local correction is nearing completion as wave iv of (v). If the presumption is correct, the XAUUSD will continue to rise to the levels of 2250.00 – 2350.50 upon correction. The level of 2106.83 is critical in this scenario as a breakout will enable the pair to continue falling to the levels of 2024.78 – 1916.55.
Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode
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